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Read the latest trading news, views and insights from Sparta’s team of experts.

13 January 2026

EMEA Chart Pack January 2026

7 January 2026

Whilst jet pricing strengthens globally, diesel stocks are building strongly ahead of cold weather and impending turnarounds

17 December 2025

Feb/Mar diesel pricing looks increasingly like a buy with similarly strong signs in Jet

10 December 2025

The downward moves in prompt diesel pricing have been significant, but there remains a moderately bullish argument for Jan/Feb!

3 December 2025

Arbs neutral-bullish Europe; headlines impossible

26 November 2025

Dec/Jan ICE GO spreads will expire below those of Nov/Dec but will it be enough before Jan/Feb’s peak diesel demand?

19 November 2025

Steep rally in European diesel spreads and premia brings AG/WCI and USGC MR arbs close to workable, whilst jet arbs into Europe close further

12 November 2025

Record seasonal width of the GO E/W contributes to workable Middle East diesel and jet West combined with open USGC MR arbs into Europe

5 November 2025

EU and US diesel (and jet) appears bullish at least in the short term, whilst a bearish argument can be more easily constructed for Asian middle distillates

30 October 2025

Global diesel and jet still appear bullish, with ongoing strength in East Asia seeping West

22 October 2025

Arbs remain closed for diesel and jet into Europe, the current bullish trend looks set to continue for both

15 October 2025

Closed arbs persist even as EU molecule ban looms

8 October 2025

With Sing diesel and jet exhibiting such strength, it’s hard to not see how this transfers to Western distillate in the short term

1 October 2025

Arbs close into Europe adding to a bullish correction for EU diesel and jet, whilst Sing should receive more diesel

24 September 2025

Arbs pointing to Europe indicate a more bearish end to October though ongoing Russian refinery attacks moderate that view

17 September 2025

The HOGO really looks like a buy, could global jet be finding its floor?

10 September 2025

European resupply boosted short-term but risks shortfall if E/W gains further

27 August 2025

Limited end-Q3 upside case for ICE GO slowly building

20 August 2025

Sept bullish, Q4 bearish from here

13 August 2025

Disty seems relaxed while one-off supply risks mount

6 August 2025

Spreads sink down past 2025 norms

30 July 2025

The SHORT TERM diesel outlook becomes more bearish, as jet starts to find a floor!

23 July 2025

Some short bearishness in Western distillates in the short term, but with stocks low and jet yields high, diesel cracks will not fall far

18 July 2025

Europe’s Russia sanctions pile pressure on tight diesel market

James Noel-Beswick

16 July 2025

Somewhat bullish case for diesel in the short term, despite stellar global refining runs

9 July 2025

Diesel strengthens greatly into ICE GO’s expiry, but with so many open arbs, surely a ceiling will be hit after that!

2 July 2025

Global diesel’s bullish run seems set to continue for at least the short term

25 June 2025

Can somewhat increased diesel arbs into Europe and strong refining runs overcome the continuing Middle East tensions?

18 June 2025

European distillates price for Iran disruption… sort of

11 June 2025

Arb signals into Europe still not consistently bearish

4 June 2025

June ICE GO should expire strongly, after which we have a bearish view on global middle distillate, but admittedly the continuingly low US diesel stocks picture gives us pause for thought

28 May 2025

A strong argument to be long June ICE GO, but the weakness in both HO and Singapore diesel indicates the medium-term direction

21 May 2025

Short term strength probable in the West but weakness in the East likely to show the direction for global middle distillates in the medium term

14 May 2025

June/short term should be a positive month for ICE GO and HO whilst the increased flows into Asia should cap Singapore middle distillate derivatives

7 May 2025

AG/WCI diesel pointing to Eastern strength may offer some support, but the overall trend for global distillate remains bearish

30 April 2025

Not yet time to go short on macro as prompt physical remains buoyant

23 April 2025

Diesel spreads and cracks largely flat as US and EU runs increase and demand concerns intensify

16 April 2025

The strength in East Asian middle distillates is notable but ICE GO and HO should weaken from here

9 April 2025

The moderate rally of the past week in the middle distillate complex is set to continue but the improvement in refining margins and ongoing tariff effects are an important moderating factor

2 April 2025

The outlook remains neutral to bullish but the end of European turnarounds is approaching

26 March 2025

US drawing stocks, closed arbs to Europe and EU and Asian maintenance all lead us to maintain a bullish view on global middle distillates

19 March 2025

With closed arbs to Europe and decreasing refining margins in the East, we maintain a bullish view on middle distillates into the medium term

12 March 2025

Impending turnarounds in EU and Asia appear to be turning the situation bullish currently

5 March 2025

The US tariffs have made any position feel like a gamble currently, but we remain largely bearish on global middle distillate pricing

26 February 2025

US turnarounds, cold weather, closed arbs maintain bullish momentum but peak feels imminent

19 February 2025

The short term remains bullish for ICE GO and HO, with important monitoring needed ahead of the probable ceiling in March

5 February 2025

Middle distillate strength set to move East as ICE GO and HO find somewhat of a ceiling in coming weeks

29 January 2025

A bearish outlook for ICE GO and Singapore diesel contrasts with a bullish one for HO and jet

15 January 2025

New sanctions on Russia lend at least temporary strength to global diesel market

8 January 2025

Real tightness in East Asian diesel and whilst it feels more marginal in US and EU, we still maintain a bullish view

20 December 2024

2025 global diesel market: outlook and expectations

18 December 2024

European market is for now finely balanced; key factors in early 2025 are the weather and marginal flows from a tight-ish Eastern market

11 December 2024

East Asian diesel strength and a potentially cold winter must be monitored, but until we start to feel the effect of global maintenance starting mid Q1 2025, we are marginally bearish middle distillate from here

27 November 2024

Whilst we remain bullish distillate, and diesel in particular, into Q1 2025, it is becoming important to consider when to get short; perhaps in anticipation of the end of global maintenance mid Q2 2025?

20 November 2024

Are diesel stocks building enough before Q1 and Spring-time global maintenance?

13 November 2024

Reduced PADD1 crude runs, a closed USGC TA arb and Middle Eastern arbs still pointing East lead us to remain bullish ICE GO despite refinery returns

6 November 2024

With Asian and European runs under pressure, the positive outlook for distillate seems probable to continue for rest of the year

30 October 2024

Reduced Chinese distillate exports lend real strength, but for how long with crude runs, particularly in the US and Middle East returning

24 October 2024

Bullish distillate short term, but returning runs after maintenance and new supply should temper this; run cuts in East Asia, in particular, continue to be important to monitor

16 October 2024

Bearish outlook difficult to ignore as diesel markets slip into contango and margins likely to face further pressure

9 October 2024

Diesel market faces limited prompt upside as Middle East risks fade and US pricing adjusts to curtail exports

2 October 2024

Continuing bullish signals for ICE GO spreads and cracks but recovering margins/returning supply will be important to monitor

25 September 2024

Whilst East Asian diesel feels relatively flat, there appears to be some warranted optimism in ICE GO and HO

18 September 2024

Continuingly bearish positions held in the market but with run cuts and maintenance ongoing, now could be a nice time to get long

11 September 2024

Maintenance, winter demand and runcuts may lend some short-term strength to global distillate. Refinery additions are likely to overcome these in Q4

4 September 2024

Maintenance and run cuts have resulted in a modest recovery in the diesel market but it should be limited with arbs open and pointing to Europe

28 August 2024

The market turns increasingly bearish, whilst the medium term outlook has some positivity, but will we need run cuts as an additional solver?

21 August 2024

Significant diesel and jet overhang to work through, but Asian, European, Russian and US maintenance in September/October should be enough to turn the tide

14 August 2024

Are we seeing the start of the recovery in both diesel and jet globally?

7 August 2024

The short term appears decidedly bearish, but could Q3 global maintenance and somewhat improving demand be enough to turn around an ailing distillate market?

31 July 2024

AG, WCI and US diesel arbs point or open to Europe, high jet yields start to take their toll on US and EU jet pricing particularly

24 July 2024

The bearish run on diesel to continue, high US jet yields are important to monitor also

17 July 2024

Largely bearish diesel until Autumn maintenance, bullish jet until those arbs reopen

10 July 2024

Bearish on Asian and European diesel and jet until Europe’s September maintenance period; however important to monitor US hurricanes and European heat issues

3 July 2024

Europe’s steady distillate recovery to continue in advance of a potentially disrupted summer of refining in the western hemisphere

26 June 2024

AG diesel arbs should be plentiful to Europe whilst high freights keep the USGC arb closed

19 June 2024

Jet and diesel both exhibit strength but should find a ceiling with the opening of arbs in the coming weeks

12 June 2024

Global jet, and Atlantic Basin diesel in the very prompt, exhibit real strength, largely on the back of continuing closed arbs

5 June 2024

Unless run cuts really manifest strongly, the diesel outlook is decidedly bearish whilst surging global freights close arbitrage opportunities

29 May 2024

Discussion of run cuts, turnaround delays and positive economic signals leads to some small positive signs in global diesel

23 May 2024

Diesel continues to be very flat; closed arbs, maintenance in Asia and poor demand, whilst jet gains despite open arbs

15 May 2024

Remaining very cautiously bullish, ending of EU turnarounds and poor US diesel demand contrast with Asia Pacific turnarounds and “potential” runcuts

8 May 2024

Remaining very cautiously optimistic on diesel and jet pricing from here, despite positions held in the market

1 May 2024

Europe still priced out of major arb routes; Sing & USGC markets to take next hit

24 April 2024

Diesel arbs are closed to Europe whilst US and Singapore diesel stocks reduce; signals somewhat of a recovery/floor after a long period of bearish sentiment in the diesel market

17 April 2024

Bearish feel globally in diesel with Asia Pacific maintenance increasing whilst jet shows some recovery

10 April 2024

Bearish Asian and European diesel with some glimmers of hope in the US, whilst European jet continues to suffer

3 April 2024

A mixed bag – bearish diesel outlook clashes with ongoing geopolitical tensions

27 March 2024

Trading Energy Futures: Correlation Analysis Between Diesel USGC/ARA Arbs and GO Futures Time Spread

27 March 2024

A bearish sentiment is manifest; poor US diesel demand with increasing runs, all diesel arbs pointed at Europe, high North Asian diesel exports.

20 March 2024

Increasing diesel supply, poor demand and the end of European turnarounds in April leads to a bearish view on both diesel and jet globally

13 March 2024

Asia Pacific gasoil is weak, ME arbs point West, some surprising strength in the US whilst jet shows initials sign of recovery

6 March 2024

European and Asian diesel markets exhibit more weakness than the US whilst jet recovery is unlikely until the end of April

28 February 2024

Diesel market continues to come off its highs as strong European pull potentially unsustainable

21 February 2024

Increased marginal diesel resupply to Europe as its maintenance period really begins to start

14 February 2024

Europe exhibits a need for diesel resupply, that both US and Asian origin barrels need to price to fill

7 February 2024

An extremely bullish, but warranted, sentiment prevails in Atlantic Basin diesel, though less so in Asia Pacific and global jet

31 January 2024

Atlantic Basin, especially Europe, appears bullish diesel whilst Asia Pacific bearish, also for jet

24 January 2024

GO E/W and HOGO move to resupply Europe, no reason to believe that this will end in the short term

17 January 2024

Increasing Chinese distillate exports and continuing Red Sea issues, the GO E/W poised to widen further

10 January 2024

Cracks and spreads exhibit gains with continuing low stocks in Singapore, ARA and NY pricing centres

4 January 2024

Projected low Chinese diesel exports, Middle Eastern arbs pointing East and low Atlantic Basin stocks; bullish signs in global distillates manifest

20 December 2023

Red Sea issues uplifts spreads and cracks but this appears a little overdone!

13 December 2023

ME diesel arbs point to Singapore, whilst the USGC continues to price to export to the USAC and Europe

6 December 2023

Asia Pacific focuses on Jet, Europe Winter Specs whilst US MR freights continue to roof

29 November 2023

Asia Pacific gasoil weakness continues, jet takes front stage, US HO strength shows no signs of slowing

22 November 2023

Pockets of gasoil strength in the Atlantic Basin but the general trend continues to point negative

15 November 2023

Asian and European generally weaker but some pricing centre risk remains in the USAC

8 November 2023

Strong signs of global gasoil weakness manifesting as 2024 WCI arbs point East

1 November 2023

Low ARA stocks widen the East/West as cracks remain seasonally high

26 October 2023

West Coast India lands best into Singapore whilst Europe pulls more from the US Gulf Coast

18 October 2023

Closed arbs into Europe appear unsustainable, with USGC and AG premiums softening

11 October 2023

Bearish sentiment creeps into gasoil complex as European arbs close but WAF opportunities present themselves

4 October 2023

As the East/West narrows West Coast India exports point to Singapore

27 September 2023

HOGOs narrow steeply, all arbs into Europe appear closed whilst Singapore prices up; reflected in slight narrowing of the East West

21 September 2023

European strength briefly opens the TA arb whilst Chinese gasoil and Russian diesel export ban weighs on the East/West

13 September 2023

Europe receives large Eastern flow, whilst global cracks and spreads move up on refinery and hurricane fears

6 September 2023

Lowest ARA gasoil stocks this year, E/W to reverse recent narrowing as WCI barrels, on paper, point to Singapore

30 August 2023

US diesel tightness further contributes to E/W widening as 3rd Chinese export quotas announced

23 August 2023

Global cracks rebound, Middle Eastern arbs in high demand whilst USGC arbs closed

16 August 2023

Global cracks decrease despite low stocks and general bullish sentiment whilst East of Suez arbs point West

11 August 2023

East of Suez arbs point to Europe, transatlantic arb closed, will this be enough to dampen Q4 spreads?

2 August 2023

Q4 ULSD arbs into Europe deeply closed despite low stocks, reduced runs and no clear source of resupply, Q4 E/W too narrow?

26 July 2023

Global distillate cracks strong on net bullish paper positions, extremely low stock environment

19 July 2023

USGC supply dominates an exacerbated European short, WCI primary for Singapore, as refinery issues cut supply in the European continent

12 July 2023

All arbs including USGC and AG/WCI point to Europe as regional refinery issues continue to take their toll

5 July 2023

Low ULSD inventory in US/Europe but also low demand, AG ULSD arbs continue to point West

28 June 2023

Signs of ULSD tightness in Europe, pressure on Singapore ULSD as South Korean refineries return from maintenance

21 June 2023

Atlantic Basin strength on the back of ULSD tightness, AG/WCI arbs point to Europe

14 June 2023

Strength exhibited in the global distillate market, all markets move into backwardation

8 June 2023

The attention of the ULSD market turns to Europe, as regional strength attracts arbs

31 May 2023

Diesel: Positive ULSD outlook for Europe on the back of closed arbs despite continuing macro demand worries

24 May 2023

Diesel market lacking direction, but some notes for cautious optimism looking ahead

17 May 2023

Europe full up on diesel as prompt Middle East barrels look East

12 May 2023

On Demand Webinar: Fuelling Growth: Capacity Updates, China Recovery, and Jet Upside in the Distillate Market

10 May 2023

Diesel cracks rally on the back of crude selling

3 May 2023

All arbs point to Asia as recession fears loom

26 April 2023

E/W narrows; bullish Singapore & Global Demand outlook poor; bearish cracks

19 April 2023

Global cracks continue their fall as USGC diesel faces heavy global competition into LatAm

12 April 2023

Economic slowdown, large EoS arrivals and falling cracks/spreads paint negative picture for European diesel complex

5 April 2023

Surprise OPEC crude production cut and signs of recession weigh heavily on global diesel cracks

29 March 2023

ICE GO Spreads remain highly backward as French refinery and port strikes intensify

22 March 2023

French refineries move into 15th day of strike action

16 March 2023

Flat-price collapse aside, diesel markets struggling to show any strong direction

23 February 2023

Barrels being pushed into Rotterdam in the prompt as Russian displacement begins

15 February 2023

Market likely at a bottom as new dynamics being established

10 February 2023

Damp squib sanctions bring sell-off, continued status quo – for now

1 February 2023

Wind blown from the sails as Europe remains well supplied

26 January 2023

Timespreads too steep, arb spreads too narrow

18 January 2023

First glimmers of a return to European diesel pull

11 January 2023

Arbs into Europe close fully as E/W narrows

5 January 2023

Europe not pulling hard despite upcoming Russian product sanctions

14 December 2022

First signs of market tightness already reappearing in Europe

9 December 2022

USGC Arbs barely workable transatlantic but applying pressure on EoS pricing

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