Sparta in action: How Sparta called the ICE GO rally before spreads widened

How Sparta identified the GO E/W widening setup early

In mid-February, ICE GO spreads were still relatively contained.

Mar/Apr was trading at $7.25/mt.

Sparta flagged structural tightening.

Eleven days later, spreads had rallied sharply and cracks were higher.

This is what we saw, when we saw it, and how Sparta users were positioned before the move.

Get the next alert before it moves.

Start your free 30-day trial of Sparta Knowledge.

Setting the stage on 12 February: spreads stable, but trade routes starting to close

Mar/Apr ICE GO: $7.25/mt
March GO E/W: –$29.10/mt

The structure looked steady.

Underneath, arbitrage economics were shifting and supply optionality was disappearing.

What Sparta saw

1. European ULSD arbitrages shut, cutting off supply flexibility

Sparta’s Pricing Centre (Diesel) showed all major ULSD arbitrages closed.

No fresh barrels were economically workable into Europe.

When arbitrages shut, supply cannot respond.
That is how tightness builds.

2. AG and WCI barrels incentivised East, draining the Atlantic Basin

Sparta’s By Origin dashboard showed AG and WCI ULSD LR2s earning stronger netbacks into Singapore than into NWE or the Med.

The incentive was clear: barrels should tilt East.

As Sparta wrote:

“The incentive is clear: more barrels should tilt towards Singapore. In time, that shift is likely to weigh on Singapore diesel spreads and cracks and should trigger another widening in the GO E/W.”

Flows redirecting.
Atlantic tightening.
E/W widening risk increasing.

3. Structural tightness forming before price reacted

With inflows constrained and exports favouring Singapore, the Atlantic Basin structure was tightening before spreads fully responded.

Trade routes were closed.
Balance was shifting.

What happened next: Spreads widened and cracks accelerated higher

By 23 February:

Mar/Apr ICE GO:
$7.25 → $12.50/mt

March GO E/W:
–$29.10 → –$43.00/mt

Crack up roughly $4/bbl over the same period.

ICE GO spreads rallied $5.25/mt in 11 days.

The result: flow-driven tightening translated directly into price

Call made: 12 Feb at $7.25/mt
By 23 Feb: $12.50/mt

When flows close and structure tightens, spreads firm.

Sparta Knowledge sent the signal before the screen caught up.

Want to see signals like these in real time?

Sparta Knowledge connects arbitrage economics, flows, spreads, and structure into one forward-looking view.

Start your free 30-day trial of Sparta Knowledge.