Four fuel oil trades, millions in upside, one platform saw it all before anyone else

Most traders watched the market move. Sparta clients saw it coming.

Since the release of Sparta for Fuel Oil in January, Sparta’s clients have spotted hidden signals, acted early, and turned four major market shifts into real profit while others were still reacting.

This isn’t hindsight. It’s forward-looking market intelligence with actionable insights for the fuel oil market. Powered by Sparta.

Call 1 – The $5/MT Signal

In mid-February, Sparta for Fuel Oil’s blender showed early signs that the Singapore 0.5% VLSFO market was heading for a much weaker structure, well before most market participants caught on.

In our fuel oil market commentary titled ‘Bleak short-term picture for low sulphur in Singapore’, published on February 18th, Our Commodity owner for Fuel Oil – Hoa Nguyen, expressed the following:

“In short, both fundamentals and price signals from the blending point paint a rather bleak picture for 0.5 in Singapore in the next few weeks.”

“The market has already reacted the way we would expect it to, but there is an argument here for further room to the downside for spreads – perhaps even flat structure.”

Read the full commentary here.

At the time, forward spreads were still holding around $4.50–$4.75/MT for Mar/Apr, but Sparta’s forward-looking market intelligence and Breakeven Blender revealed a very different picture.

Sparta’s forward-looking intelligence told a clear story: an influx of affordable blending components into Singapore, seen through FOB diffs, freight, costs and structure analysis, was quietly pushing projected forward blend margins into highly attractive territory.

Sparta’s Breakeven Blender confirmed that swing barrels remained firmly in the money even after an initial downward correction, while West-of-Suez options like Dangote looked uneconomical.

Coupled with returning Dar supplies and the Formosa RFCC turnaround, the balance of risks skewed clearly toward further downside even after the initial correction. Two weeks later, Mar/Apr spreads followed that exact path collapsing from ~$4.50/MT to flat, even dipping into slight contango, netting Sparta clients up to $5/MT.

So what is the value of having a two week advantage over the rest of the market? When looking at this call and thinking about your own numbers, what could this move have meant for you?

Here is our real-world scale as an example:

Sing 0.5 Mar/Apr went from $4.50-4.75/MT on the day the market commentary was written to flat and then slight contango 2 weeks later, netting our clients $5/MT.

Call 2 – What goes up, usually comes down

In mid-March, HSFO had been a winning trade all year. But as the complex further strengthened, so did the risk of a sharp reversal, one that most never saw coming. Sparta did.

Our HSFO fuel oil blender showed blend margins for purely non-sanctioned blenders in Singapore staying unusually high for over a week, a strong signal that more supply was flooding in. Meanwhile, Sparta blender clearly showed market was pricing as if no Russian molecules were entering the pool, just as peace talks and sanction relief gained traction.

In our fuel oil market commentary titled ‘Will the catalyst come for the high sulphur complex or is the runway too short?’, published on March 14th, Our Commodity Owner for Fuel Oil – Hoa Ngyen, expressed the following:

“If you have been long the high sulphur complex, congratulations, you have done well this year. It’s perhaps time to exit and you probably won’t miss much – it’s better to miss the tippy top of the mountain than getting caught in an avalanche.

If you don’t have a position, the overall odds at this specific point in time probably skew towards the downside. But…never forget the runway!”

Read the full commentary here.

With insights from our Breakeven Blender, Hoa further showed that regional mid sulphur barrels such as Taiwanese MCB are now profitable into high sulphur blending by some $20/MT, indicating further supplies for the blending pool that are just waiting to happen.

What happens when a long-profitable trade starts to unwind? Were you able to lock in gains and position yourself for the next move in this lucrative setup — or were you caught off guard, on the wrong side of the market without the full picture? And if your decisions were based purely on historical trends, how exposed would you have been?

Sparta identified this change in market structure well in advance, and with Sparta, you can too. This is the true power of forward-looking market intelligence with actionable insights. The above insight did not only enable Sparta’s clients to lock in their profits, but capitalise on the shift.

Here is our real-world scale as an example:

• Sing 380 Apr/May spread went from $6.5/MT on the day the call was made to $1/MT two and a half weeks later.

• Sing 380 physical premium went from $23.5/MT to $13.5/MT two weeks later.

Below are two estimates of this market move:

Outcome 1: Without Sparta for Fuel Oil

Call 3 – Two trades. Two cargoes. One clear advantage.

In mid-March, the Sparta Breakeven Blender flagged an unusual opportunity: Taiwanese MCB, a mid-sulphur component, was showing a $20/MT margin into HSFO blending in Singapore—something rarely viable.

In our fuel oil market commentary titled ‘Will the catalyst come for the high sulphur complex or is the runway too short?’, published on March 14th, Hoa noted MCB’s growing suitability for high-sulphur blending.

“One more interesting point: certain mid-sulphur components, like Taiwanese MCB, have also started to look quite workable for high-sulphur blending in Singapore”

Read the full commentary here.

Armed with this early signal, market participants moved quickly, MCB and CFB were sold into the HSFO pool over the next two weeks, with MCB fetching the premium the tool projected.

As high sulphur premiums normalized, the window closed, but those with access to the platform captured the value before it disappeared.

Call 4 – Knife’s Edge: How one market call turned a falling Euro Hi5 into a $15/MT opportunity

In mid April, the Euro Hi5 was in freefall. At $33/MT, the Jun’25 Rotterdam spread looked more like a trap than a trade, a classic falling knife, and few were eager to reach for it. Market sentiment was cautious, even fearful.

In our fuel oil market commentary titled ‘Is the bottom in for Euro Hi5 or will the falling knife keep falling (and cutting)?’, published on April 17th, Our Commodity Owner for Fuel Oil – Hoa Ngyen, expressed the following:

“I think Euro Hi5 has weakened enough that we are now at, or almost at, a reasonable entry point for the long side. And the odds of getting rewarded for going long have perhaps…shortened.”

Read the full commentary here.

This was a bold call in a nervous market.

In the weeks that followed, the spread didn’t fall further, it reversed. By early May, Euro Hi5 had climbed to $48/MT. That’s a $15/MT move, quietly unfolding while much of the market was still sidelined.

So what would this move have meant for you?

For traders, it was a clear long opportunity, capturing a $15/MT upside while others were still on the sidelines.

Two weeks. That’s all it took.

While most of the market held their positions and hoped, Sparta clients were already positioned. They saw the signal. They understood the shift. And when the move came, they they executed.

What if you’d caught the turn, two weeks before the rest of the market?

Ready to see what others can’t? Book a demo and see Sparta in action for yourself.