Sparta in action: How Sparta called the Feb/Mar ICE GO upside early

How Sparta called the Feb/Mar ICE GO upside early

In mid-December, Feb/Mar ICE GO spreads were still trading quietly.

Most of the market saw a stable structure, with no urgency to chase upside.

Sparta saw something different.

Weeks before the move, Sparta’s signals were already pointing to tightening structure, eastbound pull, and cracks that had room to run.

This is what we saw, when we saw it, and how desks using Sparta were positioned before the rally.

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Setting the stage: Feb/Mar GO at $4.75/mt (17 Dec)

On 17 December, the Feb/Mar ICE GO spread was trading at $4.75/mt.

On the surface, the market looked balanced.

But underneath, the structure was already tightening.

Sparta’s live intelligence was flagging early signs that supply was clearing, just as cracks were starting to firm.

What Sparta saw

1. Barrels were pulling East

Sparta’s By Origin Dashboard showed clear eastbound signals.

AG and WCI LR2s were pointing East, reducing availability into the Atlantic Basin.

This wasn’t noise. It was structural.

As barrels moved East, Western supply was thinning faster than the market was pricing in.

2. Margins were coming under pressure

At the same time, Live Curves highlighted margin compression across key regions.

USGC and NWE margins were weakening just as supply was clearing.

Historically, this setup matters.

When cracks tighten alongside eastbound flows, GO spreads tend to respond.

3. The structure had room to run

Sparta Knowledge tied the picture together:

• Cracks were tight

• Eastbound pull was accelerating

• Feb/Mar structure was breaking higher

On 17 December, Sparta flagged it clearly:

“Feb/Mar diesel and jet pricing appear to be giving strong buy signals.”

This was signal, not hindsight.

What happened next

By 21 January, the Feb/Mar ICE GO spread had rallied to $10.25/mt.

From $4.75 to $10.25 in just over four weeks.

That’s a +116% move.

The structure didn’t stall.
It accelerated.

How Sparta caught it early

Across Sparta’s tools, the same directional signal aligned.

By Origin Dashboard

• AG and WCI LR2s pointing East

• Supply clearing from the Atlantic

Live Curves

• Early margin compression flagged

• Structural tightness confirmed

Sparta Knowledge

• Commentary connected flows, cracks, and structure

• High-conviction signal, not screen chasing

This multi-signal alignment gave Sparta users confidence before the move unfolded.

The result: a +116% move in just over four weeks

• Call made: 17 Dec at $4.75/mt

• Market print: $10.25/mt by 21 Jan

• Move: +116%

Sparta users weren’t reacting to the rally.

They were positioned early.

Signal. Not hindsight.

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