Week of 6th-10th April Pricing Analyst Update – Nadia Riaz – AG – Cross Barrel
Price action in the Arab Gulf remained firm and unpredictable, with sharp swings in both directions as shifting headlines kept the market uncertain, caught between diplomatic hopes and physical supply constraints.
– Oil stocks in Fujairah, UAE fell over 5% in the week ending April 6 to a record low of around 12 million barrels. This marks five weeks of continuous declines, with inventories down around 40% since early March. The drop comes as regional conflict, which began on February 28, continues and has included multiple attacks on Fujairah.
– Gasoline prices softened week on week as shipowners avoided regional ports because of security risks and higher insurance costs with fewer cargoes being offered into the market. Earlier this week MRPL offered 35kt of 95R Gasoline for April loading which traded at +1.25/bl.
– Gasoil 10 ppm and 500ppm premiums softened slightly, hovering in the high $20s, as backwardation widened in the wake of significant drone attacks on Kuwait’s power and desalination facilities. Meanwhile, jet fuel prices remained firm despite tighter supply conditions, continuing to trade at around +40/bbl.
– Naphtha market conditions are firming, with Israeli strikes in Lebanon clouding expectations around a Hormuz reopening. The May-June MOPJ time spread recovered to $78/mt, while the lack of physical resupply continues to leave the market structurally short. ‘Prices could see a slight rebound later this week, as underlying fundamentals remain tight,’ a naphtha trader said.
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