Week 16 Pricing Analyst Update – Nadia Riaz – AG – Cross Barrel
Refined oil prices remained broadly stable, with limited upward momentum, as traders evaluated the likelihood of a US–Iran ceasefire extension, while the continued dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz sustained underlying supply tightness and prevented sharper price declines.
– Gasoline markets weakened amid easing geopolitical tensions, with MRPL offering 35,000mt of 95R for April loading, which traded at approximately $-2/bl. Despite the softer sentiment, supply remains constrained as key regional refineries—including ADNOC’s Ruwais, Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura, and SAMREF—continue running at reduced capacity following recent attacks.
– Jet fuel remains exceptionally firm. Supply pressure in the region has intensified, with middle distillate inventories in Fujairah dropping 32% to their third-lowest level on record. In the spot market, India’s MRPL secured a deal for a 40,000 mt cargo at a steep premium of $12–$13 per barrel—almost three times higher than earlier levels.
– Naphtha premiums are continuing to rise, with traders reporting offers around +$100/mt for ex-Fujairah cargoes. Heavy virgin naphtha (HVN) is being traded at approximately $10–15/mt below open-spec and light virgin naphtha (OSN/LVN) levels.
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