Market Outlook
Analyst brief

WCI MR tonnage tightens further as weekend fails to lengthen the list

Published27 APR 26 - 14:30 Reading time  minutes

WCI MR vessel supply in the seven-day ahead window stands at just 6 ships against a 90-day moving average of 20, placing prompt availability 14 vessels below average. What makes this reading particularly bullish is that tonnage lists typically lengthen over weekends.

That the prompt count has tightened further since Friday rather than lengthened is a somewhat rare bullish signal. The Freight Supply & Demand (FSD) model registers incremental demand of +5 vessels above normal flow and forecasts rates to firm from WS 312 to WS 337 over the coming week into the 2–11 May load window.

Fixture activity over the past few days confirms that cargo demand across destinations remains broad and sustained. Sea Wolf was placed on subs loading Sikka for South Africa at WS 370, Torm Success on subs loading Sikka for East Africa at WS 385, and Yasa Pacific on subs loading Sikka for South Africa at WS 365. Great Manta fully fixed loading Sikka for South Africa at WS 370, Fatimah fully fixed loading Sikka for East Africa at WS 375, and Lucky May fully fixed loading Sikka for Colombo at a lumpsum of $1m.

The demand from Africa remains robust. The Sikka to Dar diesel arb is open for May loaders and the Sikka to Durban diesel arb is close to opening in May and June. WCI MR rates continue to benefit from India acting as a partial replacement for the lack of CPP products out of the AG.

With prompt vessel supply running at less than a third of the trailing 90-day average, incremental demand firmly positive, the list failing to lengthen even over a weekend, and Africa arbs open; the WCI TC12 MR market is firmly bullish. Owners should push above last done as the FSD model predicts spot rates to head towards WS 337.

Topics Freight
Author

Michael Ryan

Commodity Owner

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