WCI MR counts tighten on likely shuttle and STS related trade demand in the AG
WCI MR vessel supply is tight at 6 ships against a 90-day average of 17, placing prompt availability 11 vessels below average, largely a function of tonnage tied up in shuttle and STS trade around the Arab Gulf rather than genuine Sikka exports. Incremental demand is modestly positive at +1 vessel, and together with the tight list, the Freight Supply and Demand (FSD) picture leans mildly bullish. Sikka loading diesel arb margins are bearish regardless, with Singapore at -$9.90/bbl in September, Dar-es-Salaam at -$3.25/bbl, and Durban at -$0.80/bbl, all shut through October.
With incremental demand implying 1 cargo’s worth of additional vessel demand in the picture, the FSD model points bullish, forecasting the Sikka to Durban basis to firm from WS 258 to WS 263 over the coming week into the 12 to 21 September load window and for spot TC12 to strengthen from WS 258 to WS 263. That forecast is being driven almost entirely by the supply squeeze rather than by demand pull from the arb picture.
Fixture activity from the end of last week shows a market that is still finding outlets across a wide range of products and destinations, with the Hafnia Hawk fixing ULSD to South Africa at WS 355, the Sanmar Shehnai moving gasoline to Chennai, and the Nord Harmony fixing naphtha to Japan at WS 237.5. The volume of fixing is nowhere near what the USGC is seeing, but WCI is clearly still exporting broadly even with poor diesel arb economics.
With tonnage this tight on likely shuttle and STS activity rather than cargo demand, and diesel arbs still shut, WCI MR strength here is fragile and headline driven. Owners can push for a small premium to last done while the shuttle trade keeps the list this thin.
About the Author
Michael Ryan | Commodity Owner, Freight, Sparta Commodities
Michael Ryan, our Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, brings over a decade of experience with Trafigura in the energy sector managing risk across products and regions before becoming Head of Risk for subsidiary Puma Energy. Michael then joined the Trafigura commercial team trading freight while successfully growing the physical fleet through strategic dealmaking.
Connect: LinkedIn / X
About Sparta
Sparta is the AI leader for commodity trading, home to Leonidas AI, the first decision-making engine for oil and commodity traders. Backed by USD 42 million in Series B funding led by One Peak, with participation from returning investors FirstMark and Singular, the same investors behind AI leaders like Legora, Dataiku, and Synthesia. From independents to multinationals, the world’s leading commodity teams use Sparta and Leonidas AI to move faster, trade smarter, and stay ahead of the market.
For more information, visit Sparta or follow us on LinkedIn.
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