WAF Suezmax TD20: Long tonnage list and bearish Bonny Light economics keep the market soft

WAF Suezmax vessel supply in the 14-day ahead window stands at 17 ships against a 90-day moving average of 8. The vessel supply signal is firmly bearish, and the broader WAF list data reinforces this picture: the Monday tonnage list has risen consistently over the past few weeks. The tonnage list is at its longest count year to date.

The Bonny Light crude RBI sits at +2.82 $/bbl, indicating that West African crude is expensive relative to competing grades on a landed-value basis into NWE. This is a bearish cargo demand signal for TD20, as elevated Bonny Light values reduce its competitiveness against alternative crude sources. The Freight Rate RBI is materially undervalued after the recent selloff relative to global competition, a mildly bullish supporting signal, but insufficient on its own to offset the weight of tonnage and crude economics pointing the other way.

Spot TD20 is at WS 199, with TCE levels on a BITR basis having corrected to pre-Iran conflict levels due to elevated bunker costs. Rates have dropped by over 50% from the highs above WS 400 seen earlier in the conflict.

Fixture activity so far this week reflects the current soft rate environment. Fixtures have pointed East rather than North. Delta Spirit was placed on subs loading Gabon for East discharge at WS 225 for a 5-7 May laycan, Explorer followed loading WAFr for East at WS 225 for 10-12 May, and Front Seoul was fixed loading the Erha Oil Field for Vietnam at WS 225 for 5 May dates. All three deals were concluded at the same level, confirming a market that has found a near-term floor at WS 225 for the moment but with limited upside catalysts visible. Dangote is reported to be lifting a significant number barrels out of Nigeria in May, which will provide some baseline cargo support.

The paper market for TD20 is in backwardation, with May trading at WS 190 and June at WS 166, having firmed slightly to WS 170. The broader dirty freight complex is under pressure: USG Aframaxes closed last week at WS 330 for USG/TA equivalent, still well below parity with Suezmax levels, and Med Aframax rates fell sharply through the week. The broader geopolitical context remains the dominant variable.

With a long tonnage list, expensive Bonny Light crude, and an uninspiring paper market, it’s likely that TD20 churns sideways. Charterers should continue to take advantage of the current rate environment. The tonnage supply overhang is real and the ceasefire situation offers event risk in both directions, but the base case absent a resolution is sideways to lower price action.