USGC TD25 Aframax Market Report
USGC Aframax vessel supply in the 14-day ahead window stands at 17 ships against a 90-day moving average of 11, placing prompt availability 6 vessels above average. The supply signal is bearish for near-term spot rates, reflecting the wave of ballasters that have repositioned into the Atlantic over recent weeks.
The WTI crude RBI sits at -$4.46/bbl, a strong bullish freight signal in the dashboard and the most important read for the direction of cargo demand. Neil Crosby noted today that WTI is exceedingly cheap versus competitors at key export locations, with the WTI/Brent spread at -$9/bbl and USG Aframax landed values at material discounts to North Sea grades. This keeps transatlantic cargo economics open and supports a floor for TD25 cargo demand, though the scale of the supply overhang limits how much this can move rates in the short-term.
The freight RBI is overvalued, but volatile as global DPP rates trade in large swings. Fixture activity over the last week reflects the current spot rate environment: Kmarin Resource was fully fixed loading USG for UKC at WS 257.5, and Wisdom Venture was fully fixed on the same routing at WS 253.5. Both deals are transacted well below recent highs of early March.
The FFA market is providing more details beyond the spot fixtures. March balmo paper traded at WS 300 yesterday, well above current spot at WS 255, while April traded from WS 290 firming to WS 295. FFAs are pricing a meaningful rate increase as we approach Apr pricing assuming attractive WTI cargo economics attract fresh enquiry. May paper traded up toward 245.
The very prompt spot outlook is soft due to the long Afra tonnage supply count, but the structure of the forward curve argues against selling paper at current levels. The USGC DPP market has structural WTI economic tail winds that have already tightened VLCC and Suezmax segments and should extend through to Aframaxes as well.
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