USGC MR rates press through WS 575 as jet demand and transatlantic diesel arbs absorb prompt tonnage
USGC MR vessel supply in the 7-day ahead window stands at 13 ships against a 90-day moving average of 11. Incremental demand implies 2 cargoes worth of additional vessel demand to the picture. The Freight Supply and Demand (FSD) model points mildly bullish, forecasting rates to firm from WS 577 to WS 580 over the coming week into the 20–29 April load window. The market is beginning to push into the third decade of the month and owners are holding firm, content to wait as activity builds around them.
The USAC and ECC to Rotterdam diesel arbs are wide open, with Saint John MR margins sitting at +$56.71/mt for prompt April loading and holding above +$56/mt into early May. Houston to Buenos Aires diesel opens firmly from May at +$32.00/mt and Houston to Santos is open from May at +$16.35/mt, while jet fuel has been in demand this week with at least three cargoes covering alongside short-haul enquiry.
Fixture activity over the past several days reflects the market strength. Hafnia Lynx fixed fully loading USAC for UKCM at WS 540 for a 15 April laycan, with Silver Cindy fixing USG to the Caribs at $2.7m lumpsum and Stella Maria placing on subs loading USG for West Coast Mexico at $5.775m lumpsum for 18–20 April dates. The Aegean Star was then placed on subs at WS 575 loading USAC for UKCM on the same 15 April laycan, a 35-point move-up that confirms the continued strength in the spot market.
TC14 paper shows steep backwardation, with May trading at WS 445, June at WS 320, and July at WS 255. The spread from spot WS 577 to May WS 445 prices in substantial ballaster resupply, though so far, any ballasters have been absorbed with relative ease. Expect May paper to begin rolling up towards spot levels.
With WS 575 now transacted in the prompt window, jet and diesel cargo demand active across multiple trade lanes, and neutral tonnage counts, the outlook for TC14 remains firmly constructive. Owners should repeat last done levels into the third decade load window. Charterers covering May requirements should act now.
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