USGC MR diesel arbs open across the board as TC14 selloff creates buying opportunity
The Sparta Freight Supply & Demand (FSD) model is forecasting spot TC14 to rally from WS 405 to WS 444 in the next week for the 2–11 May load window, with incremental demand running at +11 MRs above normal flow. The current spot rate has not caught up yet with what diesel arbs are already telling the market.
The North American distillate arb export picture is uniformly bullish. Houston MR diesel arb margins into Rotterdam stand at +$27/mt for the 16–20 May load window, remaining open all the way through to early June. Saint John MR margins are the widest at +$73/mt in the earliest window and remain open through June loaders. The New York MR diesel arb margin is open by +$37.5 and is positive until the mid-June load window.
Saint John LR1 margins are wide open from mid-May to early June. Even Houston LR2 and LR1 arbs, the weaker margins of the current vessel class spectrum, show open margins through mid-May. Across load ports and vessel classes, the bullish freight signal is clear: North American distillate arbs are wide open into NWE.
With spot at WS 405 as of last Friday and the FSD model pointing to WS 444, the current spot rate represents a clear mis-pricing relative to expected cargo demand driven by the wide-open diesel arbs. Spot rates have room to price higher. Expect May TC14 paper to strengthen. Owners with prompt USGC availability should hold firm and push above last done.
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