USGC Aframax tonnage tightens as WTI reopens to Europe and the back end of the curve prices higher
USGC Aframax vessel supply is tight at 13 ships in the 14-day window against a 90-day moving average of 20. The prompt count is down from 42 on 28 August, a material clear out of 29 ships in under three weeks. The vessel supply signal is firmly bullish for rates.
Crude econs have turned bullish alongside the tonnage supply tightening, a bullish signal in and of itself. The WTI RBI into NWE sits at +$0.31/bbl, effectively neutral after a material improvement over the same period, which means WTI is no longer shut out of North West Europe. Attacks on Petroline and the wider impact of Middle East headlines are adding additional bullish tailwinds for the USGC, as buyers look to source secure Atlantic Basin barrels.
Fixture activity from the end of last week shows the impact of the WTI RBI retracing toward neutral valuation. At least 10 Aframax cargoes were covered off the US Gulf since last Thursday, all bound for the UK Continent, with Atlantic Gem and Torm Hilde done at WS 310 and Philotimos at WS 350, then Minerva Eleftheria and Yasa Aqualina at WS 400, Pacific Diamond at WS 425, Lake Stars at WS 450 and STI Gladiator at WS 475 for a 1 October laycan. Kiowa Spirit followed on 11 September at WS 425. Quite an incredible WS 165 point rally in such a short period.
Friday’s WDF paper action eclipsed BR paper action in similar fashion to the busy day in TD3c, with the back end of the WDF (TD25) curve seeing heightened interest. Balmo traded at WS 535, October traded from WS 497.5 down to WS 480 and back to WS 505, and December rallied hard from WS 338.5 through WS 390 to WS 402.5, with Q4 firming to WS 455. The market is appropriately repricing Q4 paper as the risks to shipping mount and tradeflows are redefined.
Tonnage is tight and getting tighter, WTI is attractive into Europe again, and Middle East crude supply risk is pushing buyers toward US barrels. Owners should push above last done, but watch the WTI RBI closely for signs of fatigue, and charterers with late September and early October dates should cover now.
About the Author
Michael Ryan | Commodity Owner, Freight, Sparta Commodities
Michael Ryan, our Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, brings over a decade of experience with Trafigura in the energy sector managing risk across products and regions before becoming Head of Risk for subsidiary Puma Energy. Michael then joined the Trafigura commercial team trading freight while successfully growing the physical fleet through strategic dealmaking.
Connect: LinkedIn / X
About Sparta
Sparta is the AI leader for commodity trading, home to Leonidas AI, the first decision-making engine for oil and commodity traders. Backed by USD 42 million in Series B funding led by One Peak, with participation from returning investors FirstMark and Singular, the same investors behind AI leaders like Legora, Dataiku, and Synthesia. From independents to multinationals, the world’s leading commodity teams use Sparta and Leonidas AI to move faster, trade smarter, and stay ahead of the market.
For more information, visit Sparta or follow us on LinkedIn.
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