Market Outlook
Analyst brief

Transatlantic diesel arbs wide open into Rotterdam, providing direct support for TC14 MR rates and demand

Published14 APR 26 - 09:30 Reading time  minutes

The diesel arbitrage picture into Rotterdam is uniformly bullish for Atlantic Basin MR freight demand. The New York to Rotterdam diesel arb stands at +$47.93/mt on prompt April loading, narrowing but remaining comfortably open through the May load windows at levels ranging from +$37.16/mt in early May to +$7.85/mt in the final May window. Saint John MR margins are even stronger, holding above +$67/mt through mid-May before easing but staying positive. USGC Houston to Rotterdam on MR is open from early May at +$20.94/mt, tightening gradually but remaining in positive territory through the end of May. Spot Hou to Rotterdam diesel loaders are open by +$21/mt.

The consistency of open margins across all three Atlantic Basin load origins — USAC, USGC, and EC Canada through the May fixing window is decidedly bullish freight. Multiple competing load points with positive economics simultaneously is unusual and points to a structurally tight European diesel balance driven by the ongoing Hormuz supply disruption. With prompt NY/Rotterdam margins at nearly +$48/mt and Saint John holding above +$68/mt, the incentive for MR fixtures on transatlantic diesel flows is unambiguous. TC14 charterers should expect owners to resist any softening in rates while this arb window remains open. Cover May requirements promptly even with the MR USGC list lengthening on Monday.

Topics Freight
Author

Michael Ryan

Commodity Owner

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