The physical oil squeeze eases for now as buyers back away
“The physical oil market in general isn’t pricing the catastrophic tightness.” — Neil Crosby, Head of Research at Sparta Commodities
- Expert: Neil Crosby (Head of Research, Sparta)
- Publication: Bloomberg
- Market Focus: Crude Oil, Physical Markets, Refining, Backwardation
- Geographies: Asia, Middle East, Japan, South Korea, Persian Gulf
In a recent analysis for Bloomberg, Sparta’s Head of Research, Neil Crosby, warns that physical oil prices are not reflecting the underlying tightness still gripping the market — with Asian buyers surviving on the “bare minimum” of crude rather than genuinely easing demand. North Sea grade premiums have plunged up to 90% from their April peak, and Brent CFD spreads have narrowed from $28 to $2.15, creating a misleading picture of supply comfort. Crosby also notes that crude-processing rates in Japan and South Korea are slowly recovering, which will put renewed pressure on physical prices as inventory buffers thin. Traders should watch refinery run rate recovery across Asia and the pace of inventory draws as the key signals for when the next squeeze begins.
Real time alerts, set to your specifications
Continue reading
Distillates strength pulls further ahead after a short breather, as tightness looms ahead; jet looks...
Diesel arbs into Europe are mostly closed despite the recent upturn in pricing. Meanwhile Jet arbs East-West are much more favourable. Further weakness in SG10 E/W and in NWE Jet CIF diffs likely.
14 AUG 26 - 08:08
Atlantic Basin looks to hold naphtha, giving support to MOPJ premiums
Marginal Med arbs and a shut Rotterdam–Chiba keep naphtha in the Atlantic Basin, with Brazil the stronger outlet and MOPJ risk building into Q4.
14 AUG 26 - 07:22