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Published30 APR 26 - 08:16 Reading time  minutes

“Something will break.”

The Economist, April 30, 2026 – Neil Crosby (Head of Research, Sparta Commodities) warns that Asian refinery throughput cuts of 3.5m b/d could double by June if the Hormuz closure continues, with Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Australia approaching critical fuel shortages within five to six weeks. “Something will break,” Crosby notes, as refined product stocks hit their floor first. Traders should watch Asian crude draw rates and refinery run data closely — when throughput cuts accelerate, product cracks and regional arb opportunities will reprice sharply.

Author

Neil Crosby

Head of Research

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