TD20 Suezmax: a rapidly lengthening WAF list and bearish Bonny Light RBI signal a continued correction

WAF Suezmax vessel supply in the 14-day ahead window stands at 15 ships against a 90-day moving average of 7, placing prompt availability 8 vessels above average. That count has built sharply from just 6 open vessels at the start of last week, a near-tripling of the prompt list in days and the clearest bearish signal in the market today. The rapid build reflects the structural consequence of the Hormuz disruption: vessels have been steadily redirecting westward, and the WAF list is now absorbing the full weight of that displacement.

The Bonny Light crude RBI sits at +$1.65/bbl, a mildly bearish cargo demand signal confirming that West African crude is not currently competitive enough on a global basis to drive incremental Suezmax enquiry above seasonal norms. The RBI was -$6/bbl undervalued in the middle of March.

Fixture activity has slowed meaningfully alongside the tonnage list lengthening alongside owner sentiment softening, a natural result of slowed fixing pace. Delta Kanaris is on subs loading Djeno Terminal for the Far East at WS 310 for a 21 April laycan: a single data point over the last week. The freight RBI being undervalued at -$9.50/MT provides a mild supporting signal, confirming rates are modestly undervalued relative to global Suezmax peers, but this alone cannot offset the weight of 8 ships above average on the prompt list.

The ceasefire proposal circulating today between the US and Iran has added noise to the picture but should not be mistaken for a fundamental shift. Iran’s 10-point plan, which includes continued Hormuz control, acceptance of uranium enrichment, lifting of all sanctions, and financial reparations; contains terms that are largely untenable for Western parties. The more probable interpretation is that both sides are buying time and avoiding further infrastructure devastation rather than reaching a durable agreement. For TD20, the near-term impact is negligible: there is insufficient detail to materially shift the cargo flow dynamics that have defined the WAF Suezmax market since the conflict began.

The more genuine near-term demand support comes from ECSAM with undervalued crude RBIs, but tonnage counts are also long there. The FFA curve has softened with April paper trading at WS 295 yesterday having been above WS 300 last week, and May trading at WS 220, the market continues to price a mildly softening spot outlook.

With the open WAF list having nearly tripled in a week, fixture activity slowing and Bonny Light uncompetitive, charterers are firmly in control. TD20 rates should continue to soften. Owners holding firm will find the market increasingly difficult to sustain last done levels as ballasters continue to arrive and VLCCs remain a more attractive segment.