TC2 NWE MR: Tightening list and ballaster exodus support rates as forward curve flattens
NWE MR vessel supply in the seven-day ahead window has tightened to 15 ships against a 90-day moving average of 18. The Freight Supply and Demand (FSD) model forecasts rates to soften modestly from WS 167 to WS 157 into the 3 to 12 August load window. The model signal is mildly bearish, driven by a few out of the money arbs, but the physical market remains supported.
The key vessel supply dynamic over the last week is the ballaster exodus. A material number of MRs have decided to reposition toward the USGC in pursuit of higher earnings, and that migration of tonnage is directly tightening the European list. Those who have remained are benefiting from reduced competition, with rates edging higher as a result. Spot TC2 is now trading around WS 170, while cross-Med levels are holding around WS 185.
The arb outlook contains some incremental demand support: Rotterdam to New York heavy naphtha is open by +$7.30 cpg in August, underpinning the overall European zone naphtha cargo enquiry that has been the most active driver over the last week. Amsterdam to Argentina gasoline is open by +$9.05 cpg in August, widening to +$17.15 cpg in September. Naphtha and gasoline are driving the NWE cargo market.
Fixture activity this week reflects a transatlantic and regional demand mix. Torm Dagny went on subjects loading Mongstad for the United States at WS 167.5, Nave Atria on subjects Pembroke Dock for the United States at WS 170, and Stena Conquest on subjects Continent for the United States at WS 152.5, all for 1 to 3 August laycans. Ardmore Seaventure went on subjects Continent for UKC at WS 195 and Stallion on subjects Taranto for Med at WS 185. Dino went on subjects Continent for Atlantic America at WS 165 for 4 August.
The forward curve has flattened materially. August TC2 paper traded at WS 166, September at WS 165, and Q4 at WS 160, a lack of structure that reflects an extended MEG conflict impact. With the tonnage list 3 below average and ballasters continuing to head west to the USGC, TC2 is likely to hold around elevated current levels into August. Owners should hold firm. Fixtures should be on a case-by-case basis with a preference to open up in USAC.
About the Author
Michael Ryan | Commodity Owner, Freight, Sparta Commodities
Michael Ryan, our Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, brings over a decade of experience with Trafigura in the energy sector managing risk across products and regions before becoming Head of Risk for subsidiary Puma Energy. Michael then joined the Trafigura commercial team trading freight while successfully growing the physical fleet through strategic dealmaking.
Connect: LinkedIn / X
About Sparta
Founded in 2020, Sparta made waves in the commodity analytics space in March 2022 when it secured a $6m series A investment from Singular. This success then later snowballed into a further $17.5 million in a series A funding round led by the technology venture capital firm FirstMark, with participation from existing shareholder, Singular.
The platform, created by former traders Miles Moseley and Felipe Elink Schuurman, is designed to answer a common problem shared by most traders: 90% of pricing data required to make trading decisions is kept in silos and shared manually by voice, email, or chat.
Sparta breaks these existing data silos and combines the physical and paper markets to provide traders with live access to global raw prices, from futures and swaps to forward freight and physical premiums. We work with clients globally, including Philips 66, Chevron, Trafigura, Equinor and more.
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