TC12 WCI MR: FSD model turns neutral as tight tonnage and strong fixture activity signal a budding rate recovery
WCI MR vessel supply in the seven-day ahead window is tight at just 12 open ships against a 90-day moving average of 17. Incremental demand adds one vessel to the Freight Supply and Demand (FSD) picture, and the model forecasts rates to hold broadly flat around WS 190 into the 1 to 10 August load window.
After several consecutive weeks of bearish model readings that correctly anticipated the selloff from WS 270 in late June, the FSD model has now turned neutral. That shift, combined with a tightening list and increasing enquiry, is the clearest signal yet that the TC12 correction is over.
The arb picture is improving alongside the freight outlook. Sikka to Dar-es-Salaam diesel is the standout open route at +$4.65/bbl in August, though it turns negative from September. Sikka to La Plata diesel is negative in August at -$1.80 cpg but turns positive from September at +$3.55 cpg and widens through November. Sikka to Durban diesel is marginally negative at -$0.55/bbl in August but turns positive in the forward months. Expect WCI arb margins to continue to improve into August.
There was a wide range of enquiry last week. A few standouts: Unique Harmony fully fixed loading Sikka for Japan at WS 190 for a 29 July laycan and Hellas Tatiana fully fixed loading Mumbai for Japan at WS 190 for a 28 July laycan, establishing the base spot TC12 level. Frank Light fully fixed loading Sikka for South Africa at WS 225 for a 28 July laycan and Torm Alice fully fixed loading New Mangalore for Singapore at WS 240 for the same date.
The broader context for a TC12 recovery is the shift in global product supply dynamics. WCI should re-emerge as an increasingly important supplementary product supplier to global markets. The same geopolitical backdrop that is driving USGC crude demand toward the Far East is also redirecting product buyers toward WCI as an alternative supply origin beyond USGC product exports.
That structural demand tailwind, combined with a 5-below-average tonnage list, a neutral FSD model, and active enquiry that is clearing prompt ships into Japan, Singapore, and Africa, makes TC12 well positioned for a move higher. Owners should push for above last done. Charterers covering now are likely covering at the bottom of the market.
About the Author
Michael Ryan | Commodity Owner, Freight, Sparta Commodities
Michael Ryan, our Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, brings over a decade of experience with Trafigura in the energy sector managing risk across products and regions before becoming Head of Risk for subsidiary Puma Energy. Michael then joined the Trafigura commercial team trading freight while successfully growing the physical fleet through strategic dealmaking.
Connect: LinkedIn / X
About Sparta
Founded in 2020, Sparta made waves in the commodity analytics space in March 2022 when it secured a $6m series A investment from Singular. This success then later snowballed into a further $17.5 million in a series A funding round led by the technology venture capital firm FirstMark, with participation from existing shareholder, Singular.
The platform, created by former traders Miles Moseley and Felipe Elink Schuurman, is designed to answer a common problem shared by most traders: 90% of pricing data required to make trading decisions is kept in silos and shared manually by voice, email, or chat.
Sparta breaks these existing data silos and combines the physical and paper markets to provide traders with live access to global raw prices, from futures and swaps to forward freight and physical premiums. We work with clients globally, including Philips 66, Chevron, Trafigura, Equinor and more.
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