TC11 Far East MR: Tight tonnage and strong regional fixing sustain rates despite closed arbs
Far East MR vessel supply in the seven-day ahead window stands at just 2 ships against a 90-day moving average of 6, 4 below average and one of the tightest prompt readings seen in this segment since early June. Incremental demand is neutral, and the model forecasts rates to hold broadly flat into the 28 July to 6 August load window.
The arb margin picture is broadly negative. Ulsan to Singapore diesel sits at -$3.95/bbl in August, -$3.45/bbl in September and -$2.95/bbl in October. Ulsan to Quintero Bay diesel is shut in August and in September as are jet arbs into Los Angeles. Despite these bearish arbs, the volume and variety of fixture activity this week confirms demand is stronger than margins imply.
Fixture activity has been strong and wide ranging. Island Express fully fixed loading Yosu for Hon Gai at $825K for a 1 August laycan. Torm Dover fully fixed loading Korea for Singapore at $950K for a 1 August laycan. Diamond Express fully fixed loading Tianjin for Singapore for a 21 July laycan and MP MR Tanker 3 fully fixed loading Ulsan for the Philippines for a 22 July laycan. Frontier Mariner fully fixed loading Dalian for Australia at WS 317.5 for a 28 July laycan, and Cordoba fully fixed loading North China for Chile at $3,400K for a 5 August laycan.
The breadth of discharges across Singapore, the Philippines, Australia, Vietnam, and South America confirms that Far East MR demand is not dependent on a single trade corridor. Cordoba’s North China to Chile fixture at $3,400K is the standout long-haul move of the week.
With prompt supply at just 2 ships against a 6-ship average, a near-neutral FSD model forecast, and a fixture programme that is absorbing tonnage across multiple discharge destinations despite closed arbs, the near-term TC11 outlook is firm. The tight list leaves owners with pricing power.
About the Author
Michael Ryan, our Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, brings over a decade of experience with Trafigura in the energy sector managing risk across products and regions before becoming Head of Risk for subsidiary Puma Energy. Michael then joined the Trafigura commercial team trading freight while successfully growing the physical fleet through strategic dealmaking.
Connect: LinkedIn / X
About Sparta
Founded in 2020, Sparta made waves in the commodity analytics space in March 2022 when it secured a $6m series A investment from Singular. This success then later snowballed into a further $17.5 million in a series A funding round led by the technology venture capital firm FirstMark, with participation from existing shareholder, Singular.
The platform, created by former traders Miles Moseley and Felipe Elink Schuurman, is designed to answer a common problem shared by most traders: 90% of pricing data required to make trading decisions is kept in silos and shared manually by voice, email, or chat.
Sparta breaks these existing data silos and combines the physical and paper markets to provide traders with live access to global raw prices, from futures and swaps to forward freight and physical premiums. We work with clients globally, including Philips 66, Chevron, Trafigura, Equinor and more.
Real time alerts, set to your specifications
Continue reading
Distillates strength pulls further ahead after a short breather, as tightness looms ahead; jet looks...
Diesel arbs into Europe are mostly closed despite the recent upturn in pricing. Meanwhile Jet arbs East-West are much more favourable. Further weakness in SG10 E/W and in NWE Jet CIF diffs likely.
14 AUG 26 - 08:08
Atlantic Basin looks to hold naphtha, giving support to MOPJ premiums
Marginal Med arbs and a shut Rotterdam–Chiba keep naphtha in the Atlantic Basin, with Brazil the stronger outlet and MOPJ risk building into Q4.
14 AUG 26 - 07:22