TC14 Market Report

USGC MR vessel supply in the 7-day ahead window stands at 12 vessels, in line with the 90-day moving average of 12. With incremental demand implying 10 cargoes worth of additional vessel demand to the picture, the FSD model points bullish, forecasting rates to firm from WS 556 to WS 591 over the coming week into the 30 March to 8 April load window.

Neil Crosby noted this morning that Iran-US negotiations remain deeply chaotic, with both sides exchanging non-starter proposals and the IRGC aggressively denying that any talks are taking place at all. He highlighted that Houston remains by some margin the cheapest gasoline barrel into Australia, and that the Houston-Singapore diesel route on LR2s has blown wide open for May load, confirming Atlantic product is finding genuine eastbound pull across multiple grades. The breadth of this demand was underscored by an LR2 fixing a naphtha cargo from the USG to Japan at $9.6m yesterday, confirming that strong CPP demand is now spanning vessel classes across the clean complex out of the USGC.

Fixture activity over the past three days reflects owners commanding premium rates at every destination. Nord Master was fully fixed for USG to UKCM at WS 685 on a 26–27 March laycan, Hellas Margarita fully fixed for USG to West Africa at WS 625 on a 1 April laycan, and Green Planet placed on subjects for USG to Chile at $5.5m lumpsum on a 2–4 April laycan. Long-haul runs to Chile and West Africa clearing at these levels confirms charterers are willing to stretch for tonnage even as owners prioritize regional employment.

Arb economics provide selective but sustained support. Houston to San Jose gasoline is open in April at +14.15 cpg, widening to +21.15 cpg in May and +20.65 cpg in June, sustaining Central American pull through Q2. Houston to Buenos Aires diesel is open in April at +16.25 cpg before closing in subsequent months. Houston to Santos diesel is open by +4.00 cpg in May and +8.55 cpg in June, with South American diesel implied demand building materially through the second quarter.

TC14 paper reflected this constructive picture firmly yesterday, with April trading from WS 430 up to WS 480, May at WS 300, and Q2 settling at WS 350. Q3 traded from WS 210 to 215 with steep backwardation through the curve pricing in the view that the current squeeze is crisis-driven but sustained for now.

Australia lowered its diesel flashpoint specifications today, explicitly broadening eligible supply sources to include the United States and Canada. This is a direct structural boost to USGC cargo demand. A lack of tonnage willing to go long haul is boosting rates to far flung regions.

With the FSD model pointing to WS 591, arbs open across multiple destinations, and cross-segment demand evident from LR2s down to MRs, the outlook is firmly owner-friendly. Charterers with April requirements should cover immediately; those waiting face a market with no obvious catalyst to soften.