Podcast: Strait of Hormuz disruption: Freight shock, cracks surge, and what traders must watch next
In the latest episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, the team reacts to the sudden escalation in the Middle East and breaks down what it actually means for oil markets right now.
> Strait of Hormuz: logistical bottleneck. supply shock, or both?> Freight spike: how war risk premiums and tonne miles could change in the weeks ahead.> Crude premiums: why ex-AG crude premiums will surge> Jet vs diesel: what strong regrades are really telling you> Naphtha: E/W blow-out may not even be enough> The “oil glut” question: does it matter anymore?
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Distillates strength pulls further ahead after a short breather, as tightness looms ahead; jet looks...
Diesel arbs into Europe are mostly closed despite the recent upturn in pricing. Meanwhile Jet arbs East-West are much more favourable. Further weakness in SG10 E/W and in NWE Jet CIF diffs likely.
14 AUG 26 - 08:08
Atlantic Basin looks to hold naphtha, giving support to MOPJ premiums
Marginal Med arbs and a shut Rotterdam–Chiba keep naphtha in the Atlantic Basin, with Brazil the stronger outlet and MOPJ risk building into Q4.
14 AUG 26 - 07:22