Singapore MR supply tightens sharply as Australia import demand absorbs tonnage and product surplus drives cargo flow

Australia products demand keeps vessel supply in the Singapore MR market tight. The list stands at 12 ships in the seven-day ahead window against a 90-day moving average of 23, the prompt count is running at barely half the trailing average. With incremental demand adding a further +3 vessels to the picture, the FSD model points bullish, forecasting rates to firm from WS 379 to WS 394 over the coming week into the 22 April to 1 May load window.

The dominant narrative this week has been a surplus of product in Singapore. In the South, Australia has emerged as the primary absorber of regional tonnage, with a heavy programme of cargoes loading ex-Singapore and Indonesia for AUS/NZ discharge driving sustained fixture activity. The Singapore market should see some Aus ballasters returning to the list late next week.

The Australia demand story is reinforced by the fire at Viva Energy’s 120,000 barrel-per-day Geelong refinery; one of only two operating refineries in the country. June Goh noted today that the facility is running at just 60% of normal gasoline output and approximately 80% of diesel and jet fuel production following the blaze, which was concentrated in the alkylation unit. Viva Energy has indicated it expects to cover the shortfall through imports, providing a direct and ongoing pull on Singapore-loading tonnage into AUS/NZ. The broader Australian fuel security challenge, already acute given Hormuz disruption, is compounding the urgency of this import demand.

Fixture activity over the past three days clearly reflects the firming trend. Stena Convoy was fully fixed loading Singapore for Australia at WS 362.5 for a 27 April laycan, STI Virtus was placed on subs on the same routing at WS 360 for a 25 April laycan, and Pratincole Pacific followed on subs loading Muara for AUS/NZ at WS 390; a step-up from the prior two fixtures and a clear directional signal that rates are moving higher with each successive test.

The Singapore to Dar-es-Salaam diesel arb is marginally open in May at +$0.45/bbl and the Sing to Durban diesel arb is almost open for May loaders. There is demand pull from the East and the West.

With the prompt tonnage list running at less than half the 90-day average and the Australia import programme showing no signs of easing, owners are in a strong position heading into the weekend. The combination of a regional product surplus and a disrupted Australian refining sector pulling tonnage southward is a powerful tailwind for freight rates heading into next week.