Singapore MR Market Update

Vessel supply in the SEA MR market stands at 15 ships in the seven-day ahead window against a 90-day moving average of 23, placing prompt availability 8 vessels below average. The Freight Supply & Demand (FSD) model reflects this bullish TC7 outlook, with incremental demand registering at +3 vessels and the spot forecast pointing higher from 340 WS to 354 WS over the coming week into the 19 to 28 April load window. MRs have been ballasting away from the region of late, tightening the list further.

The dominant demand driver in the SEA MR market right now is Australia. Two Muara-to-Australia fixtures; Oak Express on subjects and Forever Confidence fully fixed at 337.5 WS confirm a busy Australia product import program is actively absorbing tonnage. Neil Crosby noted today that ARA and Houston barrels are the cheapest sources of supply into EoS shorts, with Australia increasingly becoming a focal point for regional fuel concerns as the Hormuz crisis deepens. Asian refinery run cuts are expected to intensify as crude imports fall and the regional product balance tightens further, reinforcing the demand for longer-haul MR resupply flows. Charterers are paying up for safe itineraries and the prompt list is tight.

Fixture activity over the past several days reflects broad and active cargo demand across short and long-haul destinations. Sea Runner fixed loading Singapore for Colombo at $870K lumpsum. Red Ruby fixed Singapore to Padang at $420K lumpsum, Ceto fully fixed Singapore to Merak at $500K lumpsum on a prompt 16 April laycan today. Petrolimex 21 fixed Singapore to Port Dickson at $380K lumpsum.

The TC7 model forecasts 354 WS against a current spot of 340 WS; a 14-point gap that represents near-term upside given the tight tonnage list and sustained enquiry. Owners are well positioned to push rates toward 360 WS as the market moves to end-month windows. Charterers should work to cover April and early May requirements now. The combination of below-average vessel supply, ballasters leaving the region, and sustained Australia-driven demand leaves little room to negotiate on rate.