Asia Gasoline & Middle Distillates – Pricing Analyst Update (10-18 Sep)

• Singapore physical gasoline and middle distillates strengthened week-on-week on disrupted flows from Saudi Aramco’s East-West pipeline (“Petroline”) and the Strait of Hormuz, plus uncertainty over China’s export volumes and Asian refiners’ crude access.
• Backdrop: low global product inventories, thinner crude storage buffers, and Russian refining capacity cuts following Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries.
• Singapore 92 RON gasoline flat price climbed $11.07/bbl w-o-w to $143.49/bbl on 17 Sep; cash differentials jumped $4.45/bbl to $11.22/bbl.
• Singapore 10ppm gasoil flat price gained $21.63/bbl w-o-w to $191.94/bbl; cash differentials widened $2.26/bbl to $5.05/bbl.
• Singapore jet fuel cash differentials firmed $0.44/bbl w-o-w to -$0.63/bbl, even as the flat price slipped $3.62/bbl to $180.93/bbl on softer shoulder-season travel demand.
• Northeast Asian gasoline premiums spiked after Petroline’s shutdown: a Japanese non-oxy 92 RON MR cargo was heard done at MOPS 92 RON +$7/bbl, before a Taiwanese non-oxy 93 RON LR1 cargo sold on 17 Sep at a comparatively modest +$6.50/bbl, despite its larger size and higher octane.
• Traders attributed the pullback to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s comments that Petroline could be repaired within days, rising freight costs eating into netbacks, and steep Oct/Nov backwardation, pushing 2H-October loaders to accept lower premiums to offset selling into a weaker November market.
• Outlook: gasoline faces further downside if Petroline resumes soon, partially or fully, and if China’s October mogas exports match or exceed September’s.
• Gasoil fundamentals look firmer than gasoline’s over the next few months on less elastic demand and low inventories, though the same supply risks apply.
• Two South Korean refiners reportedly cut crude runs since early September on tighter feedstock from a Middle Eastern shareholder.
• Jet fuel is expected to firm nearing winter as Japan draws kerosene for heating and year-end travel builds.

About the Author
Carrie Ho | Senior Pricing Analyst, Sparta Commodities
Carrie Ho, Senior Pricing Analyst at Sparta, brings nearly 15 years of experience across global energy and metals markets, with a particular focus on oil and LNG benchmarks. Before joining Sparta, Carrie was Associate Journalism Director at OPIS by Dow Jones, where she led energy and commodities coverage and honed her understanding of how political and economic forces drive market structure and price dynamics. She now applies this expertise to Sparta’s pricing assessments, helping clients navigate increasingly complex physical and derivatives markets.
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