Real risks remain and realised gains
- Oil bulls have stopped to take a breath, and likely lock in profits, after a $10/bbl run so far this week.
- The US appears to be the only major producer with spare export capacity, yet arbs remain closed to NWE.
- TI/Brent needs to continue to widen to offset strong TD25 rally.
- WTI on VLCC to Far East starting to open as spiking Murban values make the AG grade less competitive.
- Market chatter that OPEC will increase production in September, sounds good on paper but just getting barrels to market is a challenge for most members.
- OPEC+ member Kazakhstan forced to cut production on CPC outage, Tengiz said to be cut by 50%.
- Ship tracking data suggests Houthi’s stranglehold on Bab al-Mandeb not quite as tight as market had feared.
About the Author
Aaron is Sparta’s Commodity Owner for crude, covering physical and financial oil markets, hedging structures, and customised oil balances. He co-founded The Oil Balance and spent over a decade at Macquarie Group building supply/demand models for Cushing, PADD 1, and PADD 3, with earlier trading and derivatives roles at CHS, Musket Corp., and Prudential Financial.
Connect: LinkedIn
About Sparta
Founded in 2020, Sparta made waves in the commodity analytics space in March 2022 when it secured a $6m series A investment from Singular. This success then later snowballed into a further $17.5 million in a series A funding round led by the technology venture capital firm FirstMark, with participation from existing shareholder, Singular.
The platform, created by former traders Miles Moseley and Felipe Elink Schuurman, is designed to answer a common problem shared by most traders: 90% of pricing data required to make trading decisions is kept in silos and shared manually by voice, email, or chat.
Sparta breaks these existing data silos and combines the physical and paper markets to provide traders with live access to global raw prices, from futures and swaps to forward freight and physical premiums. We work with clients globally, including Philips 66, Chevron, Trafigura, Equinor and more.
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Distillates strength pulls further ahead after a short breather, as tightness looms ahead; jet looks...
Diesel arbs into Europe are mostly closed despite the recent upturn in pricing. Meanwhile Jet arbs East-West are much more favourable. Further weakness in SG10 E/W and in NWE Jet CIF diffs likely.
14 AUG 26 - 08:08
Atlantic Basin looks to hold naphtha, giving support to MOPJ premiums
Marginal Med arbs and a shut Rotterdam–Chiba keep naphtha in the Atlantic Basin, with Brazil the stronger outlet and MOPJ risk building into Q4.
14 AUG 26 - 07:22