Podcast: Trump blinks on Iran. The trade is in the spreads, not the headline
This is an emergency episode of Trade with Conviction — and the team’s conclusion is clear: crude futures are choppy on headlines, but the physical product market speaks for itself.
Inside this episode:
> Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum – what it means and why Iran denied every part of it
> Price suppression playbook — why $100 may be a ceiling, not a floor
> The recovery math — even if Hormuz opens tonight, we’re looking at June before supply normalises
> The actual trade — time spreads and deferred cracks, not flat price
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Distillates strength pulls further ahead after a short breather, as tightness looms ahead; jet looks...
Diesel arbs into Europe are mostly closed despite the recent upturn in pricing. Meanwhile Jet arbs East-West are much more favourable. Further weakness in SG10 E/W and in NWE Jet CIF diffs likely.
14 AUG 26 - 08:08
Atlantic Basin looks to hold naphtha, giving support to MOPJ premiums
Marginal Med arbs and a shut Rotterdam–Chiba keep naphtha in the Atlantic Basin, with Brazil the stronger outlet and MOPJ risk building into Q4.
14 AUG 26 - 07:22