Market Outlook
Podcast: The ceasefire that changed nothing. Where does oil go from here?
Published19 JUN 25 - 07:41
Reading time
minutes
In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Neil Crosby, Phil Jones Lux, and Jorge Molinero break down a ceasefire that’s changed nothing on the water. Hormuz flows remain stuck, a tollbooth system under Iranian control looks increasingly likely, and physical premiums are hitting records even as paper sells off on the headlines. The team digs into where the real trading opportunities sit across crude, naphtha, gasoline, and distillates.
Inside this episode:
- Tollbooth system now the only realistic path to restore flows
- Naphtha East-West posted its largest single-day move ever, already recovering
- Gasoline lagging the complex, risk tilted to the upside into summer
- European margins under pressure, run cuts won’t be Asia-only
- US diesel arbs pointing firmly into Asia
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