Market Outlook
Podcast: South Pars hit. Escalation was fast. What happens to oil from here?
Published17 APR 25 - 08:52
Reading time
minutes
The war in the Middle East escalated again. Israel struck South Pars. Iran responded with attacks on Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries. And as this episode was recorded, Reuters confirmed Yambu had stopped loading oil.
Flat price pushed above $115. WTI collapsed to a $20 discount to Brent as export ban fears gripped the market. TC14 and TC15 have more than doubled since the conflict started. Jet fuel in Europe hit $1,700–$1,800 a tonne, and SAS has already started cancelling routes.
Felipe is joined by Neil, Jorge, and Phil to break down what it all means:
- The Jones Act waiver: 60 days, all products — what it means for TC14, the Hogo, and US product flows
- Why WTI-Brent is at minus $20 and whether the market is pricing the right risk
- The export ban debate: crude, products, or a South Korea-style cap?
- Gasoline East-West at historical highs and what that signals about deferred cracks
- Naphtha: South Pars condensate risk, demand destruction, and the Asian steam cracker picture
- Distillates: Gulf Coast arbs, the Hogo, and Europe drawing down stocks fast
- Jet at $1,800/tonne and what it means for under-hedged airlines
- The Yambu breaking news: up to three million barrels per day potentially offline
Listen now on Spotify & all major platforms!
Real time alerts, set to your specifications
Continue reading
Week 17 Pricing Analyst Update – Nadia Riaz – AG – Cross Barrel
Oil prices steadied after a strong rally as expectations for a swift resolution to the Iran...
15 MAY 26 - 07:51
How the world has avoided an oil catastrophe so far
Expert: Neil Crosby (Head of Research, Sparta) Publication: The Economist Market Focus: Crude Oil,...
14 MAY 26 - 14:10