Podcast: South Pars hit. Escalation was fast. What happens to oil from here?
The war in the Middle East escalated again. Israel struck South Pars. Iran responded with attacks on Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries. And as this episode was recorded, Reuters confirmed Yambu had stopped loading oil.
Felipe is joined by Neil, Jorge, and Phil to break down what it all means:
- The Jones Act waiver: 60 days, all products — what it means for TC14, the Hogo, and US product flows
- Why WTI-Brent is at minus $20 and whether the market is pricing the right risk
- The export ban debate: crude, products, or a South Korea-style cap?
- Gasoline East-West at historical highs and what that signals about deferred cracks
- Naphtha: South Pars condensate risk, demand destruction, and the Asian steam cracker picture
- Distillates: Gulf Coast arbs, the Hogo, and Europe drawing down stocks fast
- Jet at $1,800/tonne and what it means for under-hedged airlines
- The Yambu breaking news: up to three million barrels per day potentially offline
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