Market Outlook
Podcast: Rising pressure on Russian oil flows
Published26 SEP 25 - 09:38
Reading time
minutes
Oil markets were driven by geopolitics this week, with Iran-related headlines triggering sharp swings in price. In this episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks what the latest moves mean for the oil risk premium, before turning to crude markets and India’s buying patterns, Russian supply, and Middle East replacement flows.
Key Takeaways:
> Iran talks flipped oil from war premium to peace trade – then straight back again.> India reducing Russian crude feels inevitable, but the timing is everything.> If Russian barrels fade, Middle East crude is first in line to replace them.> Gasoline contango is offering near-term upside while quietly loading risk into Q2.
> USG-NWE clean freight is strong but PADD-3 diesel glut keeps barrels flowing.
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