Podcast: Oil at War: Sparta live podcast
In this emergency episode, the team unpacks the fast moving market impact of the Iran conflict, focusing on how disruptions are showing up first through shipping and insurance, then cascading into crude and refined products.
> A supply gap is already forming. Around ~2m b/d could be offline even if Hormuz reopened today.
> Freight froze. The global market was initially paralyzed, but activity is picking up in regions beyond the AG.
> Jet is the pressure point. Gulf exports are critical for global jet supply and it’s the hardest product to replace when runs are cut.
> Refiners are already slowing runs. Not panic, but an attempt to avoid shutdowns as crude supply uncertainty grows.
> The biggest moves are in spreads. Inter-regional and product spreads are reacting faster than flat price.
> Even a quick de-escalation leaves disruption. Infrastructure damage, shut-ins and delayed restarts could keep markets tight.
> One key question: is Brent in the low $80s underpricing the scale of physical disruption?
Listen now on Spotify & all major platforms!
Real time alerts, set to your specifications
Continue reading
Cracks set to rally in winter
Supply risk builds across the Atlantic Basin and Asia as blending and refining margins turn negative.
09 OCT 26 - 12:10
Naphtha breaks higher while gasoline corrects, and the gas-nap pays for it
Freight is the obstacle between Asian demand and Western barrels
09 OCT 26 - 10:10
Singapore regrade swings from floor to near 10-year highs in a fortnight on diesel weakness and Chin...
Singapore regrade swings from floor to near 10-year highs in a fortnight on diesel weakness and China quota confusion; bullish European regrade, bearish Singapore regrade post-Golden Week
08 OCT 26 - 15:09