Podcast: Iran, Venezuela, Russia; the oil triple-threat
In this episode, the team breaks down how a fragile, two sided oil market is being shaped by geopolitics rather than fundamentals. With Venezuela, Iran and Russia all back in focus, they explore how sanctions risk, shifting trade flows and political uncertainty are keeping crude exposed to sharp risk rallies even as the broader balance points back towards oversupply. The conversation moves through crude and product markets, questioning whether current pricing truly reflects downside supply risk, and where traders should be most alert as seasonal and geopolitical forces collide.
Key takeaways:
- Why the oil market feels like Jekyll and Hyde, swinging between oversupply and headline driven rallies
- The big geopolitical flashpoints that matter most for crude right now
- What could change India’s buying behaviour on Russian barrels
- A challenge to the bearish view on diesel spreads
- Early signals from gasoline as the market turns toward spring
- How Venezuela related flows are quietly influencing US Gulf pricing
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Distillates strength pulls further ahead after a short breather, as tightness looms ahead; jet looks...
Diesel arbs into Europe are mostly closed despite the recent upturn in pricing. Meanwhile Jet arbs East-West are much more favourable. Further weakness in SG10 E/W and in NWE Jet CIF diffs likely.
14 AUG 26 - 08:08
Atlantic Basin looks to hold naphtha, giving support to MOPJ premiums
Marginal Med arbs and a shut Rotterdam–Chiba keep naphtha in the Atlantic Basin, with Brazil the stronger outlet and MOPJ risk building into Q4.
14 AUG 26 - 07:22