Podcast: Geopolitics first, balances second: What is really driving oil markets
This episode steps back from day to day price noise to examine how geopolitics is increasingly shaping oil markets across crude and products. The team unpacks the easing but unresolved US EU trade tensions, Venezuela’s uncertain return to market, and why Iran remains a background risk. From there, the discussion moves into how these geopolitical risks are keeping crude structures tight despite looser balances, before diving into physical crude flows, Indian buying behaviour, blending economics, and the knock on effects for freight and refining margins. The episode rounds out with a detailed look at distillates, gasoline, and light ends, highlighting where recent price strength is weather driven, structural, or potentially vulnerable.
Key Takeaways:
- Why geopolitics is overriding traditional balance signals in crude structures
- What Venezuelan barrels mean for spreads, freight, and refinery slates
- India’s crude buying strategy and why Russian flows are unlikely to go to zero
- Anomalies emerging in light sweet crude pricing and ARBs
- Distillates strength explained: weather, stocks, and maintenance risk
- Gasoline contango, Dangote uncertainty, and early signals for spring
Listen now on Spotify & all major platforms!
Real time alerts, set to your specifications
Continue reading
The calm in physical won’t last forever
Plenty market chatter about the incredible weak state of crude diffs with North Sea almost below...
08 MAY 26 - 13:01
MR ballaster build: supply pressure mounting across key regions
MR ballaster counts have risen sharply over the past two weeks, with the most pronounced moves in...
08 MAY 26 - 10:01