Podcast: Fog of war thickens
In this episode, the team breaks down an unusually long crude market, muted price reactions to geopolitical risk, and what shifting tone from OPEC’s latest OSPs might signal for 2025. They dig into Venezuela’s political volatility and what any supply hit would really mean for global flows, alongside a US production surge driven by the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. The conversation then moves into products, where gasoline and naphtha markets show sharp regional divergences, softening cracks, and some surprising Atlantic/Asia ARB developments – painting a picture of a market well-supplied in crude but still tight and reactive in key product hubs.
Key Takeaways:
> Why escalating attacks and geopolitical threats still aren’t moving crude spreads
> The big signal hidden in OPEC’s weakest Arab Light OSP in five years
> How the Venezuela–US tension actually affects China, teapots, and global balances
> A surprising jump in US production — and why it happened with flat rig counts
> Gasoline’s split personality: pad 1 tightness versus Gulf Coast builds
> What’s really driving NAFTA and East–West flows into early 2025
Real time alerts, set to your specifications
Continue reading
Distillates strength pulls further ahead after a short breather, as tightness looms ahead; jet looks...
Diesel arbs into Europe are mostly closed despite the recent upturn in pricing. Meanwhile Jet arbs East-West are much more favourable. Further weakness in SG10 E/W and in NWE Jet CIF diffs likely.
14 AUG 26 - 08:08
Atlantic Basin looks to hold naphtha, giving support to MOPJ premiums
Marginal Med arbs and a shut Rotterdam–Chiba keep naphtha in the Atlantic Basin, with Brazil the stronger outlet and MOPJ risk building into Q4.
14 AUG 26 - 07:22