Podcast: Crude tidings: Oil market wrap-up & 2026 forecast
In the final episode of the year, the team breaks down the key macro and geopolitical drivers shaping Q1 2026 and what they mean for the physical barrel.
Key Takeaways:
> Venezuela and Ukraine headlines are back, but the desk debates what actually changes the base case versus what is just noise.
> Signs of surplus are turning from theory into flow and inventory talk, raising uncomfortable questions about where the clearing price really is.
> Distillates: why Q1 could tighten faster than people expect, and what would need to happen for that view to break.
> Naphtha: East West remains the anchor theme, but the team flags two or three catalysts that could flip sentiment quickly.
> Gasoline: Europe’s swing from tightness to storage economics, plus the one refinery story that still matters for 2026.
> Crude: what contango needs to look like to “do the work,” and who blinks first if the market stays heavy.
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