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Oil prices fall amid mixed signals on US-Iran peace deal

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Published25 MAY 26 - 07:31 Reading time  minutes

“Fundamentally, there is no change to the underlying picture, where 10-11 million barrels per day of crude oil continue to be shut-in for every day the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Sparta estimates still about three to six months required to get everything back to status quo, including time to bring production and refineries back online.” — June Goh, Senior Oil Analyst at Sparta Commodities

  • Expert: June Goh (Senior Oil Analyst, Sparta)
  • Publication: Al Jazeera
  • Market Focus: Crude Oil, Supply Flows, Production Recovery
  • Geographies: Middle East, Asia, Singapore

In a recent analysis for Al Jazeera, Sparta’s Senior Oil Analyst, June Goh, warns that peace deal optimism is masking a supply reality that won’t shift quickly — with 10-11 mb/d of crude still shut in for every day Hormuz remains closed. Markets are betting on a near-instant release of around 100 million barrels of stranded crude once a deal is finalised, but Sparta estimates three to six months will be needed to bring production and refining capacity fully back online. The risk is that prices overshoot to the downside on deal euphoria before the physical market has actually recovered. Traders should watch physical flow confirmation through Hormuz and production restart timelines — not the diplomatic headlines — as the true indicators of when supply actually returns.

Read the full article in Al Jazeera

Author

June Goh

Senior Oil Analyst

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