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Oil price rises above $107 after Trump tells aides to prepare for extended blockade

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Published29 APR 26 - 14:21 Reading time  minutes

“A ‘managed stalemate’ — a lasting ceasefire combined with disrupted traffic at the Strait of Hormuz — will likely push Brent prices to between $95 and $105 a barrel, with Asian buyers redirected toward barrels from the U.S., Brazil, West Africa and Russia.”

  • Expert: Abhishek Kumar (Senior Oil Market Analyst, Sparta)
  • Publication: Wall Street Journal
  • Market Focus: Crude Oil, Trade Flows, Geopolitical Risk
  • Geographies: Middle East, Asia, US, West Africa, Brazil, Russia

In an analysis for the Wall Street Journal, Sparta’s Senior Oil Market Analyst, Abhishek Kumar, flags that a “managed stalemate” — a lasting ceasefire combined with Hormuz disruption — would sustain Brent at $95-$105/bbl rather than triggering a sharp reversal. Asian buyers face a structural crude supply shift, forced to redirect demand toward U.S., Brazilian, West African and Russian barrels. The stagflationary risk is real: high oil and domestic gas prices could persist far longer than markets are currently pricing. Traders should monitor how quickly Asian demand realigns with alternative origins and whether Hormuz friction becomes a sustained price floor.

[Read Abhishek Kumar’s full market commentary in the Wall Street Journal]

Author

Abhishek Kumar

Senior Oil Market Analyst

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