Gulf attacks threaten the ceasefire
“If the ceasefire is broken, the oil market faces resurging risks.” June Goh, Senior Oil Analyst at Sparta Commodities
Oil rebounds 2% to near $96 after US forces downed four Iranian drones and struck a launch unit near Hormuz. Iran retaliated against the US base within hours, erasing most of Wednesday’s 5% peace-deal selloff
The ceasefire is fracturing on multiple fronts: Kuwait activated air defences overnight, Hormuz remains under double blockade, and core sticking points in US-Iran talks — Iran’s nuclear programme, control of the strait — remain unresolved entering the conflict’s fourth month
US crude stockpiles fell another 2.8 million barrels last week (API data), extending a run of drawdowns that has become the clearest signal of how tight the physical market has already become
In a Bloomberg report on the renewed Gulf escalation, Sparta’s Senior Oil Analyst June Goh frames the risk the market keeps trying to dismiss: a broken ceasefire puts oil infrastructure directly back in the crosshairs, at a moment when inventories have already been significantly drawn down.
Wednesday’s selloff showed how quickly traders price in resolution. Thursday’s drone exchanges showed how quickly that view unravels. Millions of barrels of daily supply remain shut in, negotiations have stalled over fundamental issues, and the physical gap in the market has been deepening week on week.
The risk Goh identifies is asymmetric. If diplomacy holds, recovery is slow and measured. If the ceasefire breaks, a market already short on inventory has very little buffer. Watch the physical flows, not the headlines.
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