Oil premiums fizzle out as concerns abate on supply shortfall
“We are likely still drawing quite hard on global oil inventory, which can only be ignored for so long.”
- Expert: Neil Crosby (Head of Research, Sparta)
- Publication: Bloomberg
- Market Focus: Crude Oil, Physical Premiums, Global Inventories
- Geographies: Global, US, China, Middle East, West Africa
In an analysis for Bloomberg, Sparta’s Head of Research, Neil Crosby, warns that the current calm in physical oil markets is masking an accelerating inventory draw that cannot be ignored indefinitely. Dated Brent has fallen from above $140 to near $98, with multiple crude grades — including Kazakhstan’s CPC blend and Angola’s Dalia — trading at multi-year lows or failing to find buyers. US exports, emergency reserve releases, and China’s pullback to a decade-low 6.7 million barrels a day have suppressed prices for now, but the underlying draw on global stockpiles is running hard. Traders should watch whether US export volumes hold or pull back as domestic prices rise — that is the primary variable keeping international markets in balance.
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