NWE MR rates hold near WS 295 as short-haul fixtures dominate lately

NWE MR incremental vessel demand is running at -1 vessel, a modest drag on the combined supply-demand picture. Vessel supply stands at 10 ships in the seven-day ahead window against a 90-day moving average of 15. The headline tonnage count remaining comfortably below the trailing average continues to provide a degree of structural support. The Freight Supply and Demand (FSD) model forecasts TC2 rates to ease marginally from WS 295 to WS 291 over the coming week into the 20–29 April load window.

With the traditional transatlantic arbs largely closed, enquiry has been concentrated in shorter-haul and intra-regional voyages. The absence of sustained WAF and South American long-haul demand has tempered the pace of fixing, but the open LatAm gasoline arb means the cargo base is not absent. It is simply thinner than in preceding weeks. The Amsterdam to Alpha Zone/Dock Sur gasoline arb is firmly open in April at +23.60 cpg. The Amsterdam to Montreal gasoline arb is effectively flat in April at -0.35 cpg before turning constructive in May at +9.05 cpg.

Fixture activity over the past three days reflects this dynamic clearly. Silver Millie was placed on subs loading North Spain for Med at 485 WS for a 19–21 April laycan, while Hafnia Ammolite fixed on subs loading ARA for Malta and the Canaries at 480–495 WS for 18–19 April dates. Equality was placed on subs loading Sines for UKC at 395 WS, and Ardmore Seavanguard fixed fully loading Huelva for the United States at 300 WS on an 18–19 April laycan. Captain Leon fixed fully loading Taranto for Med at 300 WS for 16–17 April dates. The range from 300 WS on longer and grade-sensitive voyages to 485–495 WS on short-haul intra-regional runs illustrates the strong premium that short hauls currently command.

TC2 balmo paper trades at WS 300, broadly in line with current spot, suggesting no immediate dislocation in the prompt and May paper is similarly valued. With vessel supply still below the trailing average and short haul demand keeping a floor under cargo enquiry, the near-term outlook is best characterized as sideways. Charterers and owners can work on a case-by-case basis.