NWE MR gasoline arbs: multiple routes open simultaneously as summer demand pulls ARA barrels across the Atlantic

• The NWE MR gasoline arb picture is broadly constructive today, with multiple discharge destinations open simultaneously and margins wide enough to drive sustained fixture demand through May and into June.
• The ARA blender margin into New York sits at +5.20 cpg in May and +4.35 cpg in June, while the Amsterdam to Montreal arb is materially wider at +19.90 cpg in May and +9.80 cpg in June; a margin that reflects the structural pull of Canadian gasoline demand ahead of the summer driving season.
• The standout route is Amsterdam to Offshore Lome, where Nigerian gasoline margins have opened to +111.50 $/mt in May. Amsterdam to Argentina (Alpha Zone/Dock Sur) is also open at +22.50 cpg in May and +9.75 cpg in June, adding a further Latin American pull to the demand picture. Rotterdam to New York heavy naphtha arb is also open for May loaders.
• The breadth of simultaneously open arbs; New York, Montreal, West Africa, and Argentina all in positive territory for May loading is directly supportive of TC2 NWE MR freight demand. With the gasoline complex pulling NWE barrels in several directions at once, owners should dig their heels in even with above average MR supply.

About the Author
Michael Ryan, our Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, brings over a decade of experience with Trafigura in the energy sector managing risk across products and regions before becoming Head of Risk for subsidiary Puma Energy. Michael then joined the Trafigura commercial team trading freight while successfully growing the physical fleet through strategic dealmaking.
Connect: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mgryan/ 

About Sparta

Founded in 2020, Sparta made waves in the commodity analytics space in March 2022 when it secured a $6m series A investment from Singular. This success then later snowballed into a further $17.5 million in a series A funding round led by the technology venture capital firm FirstMark, with participation from existing shareholder, Singular.

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