NWE CPP Market Report

Vessel supply in the NWE MR market stood at 6 ships in the seven-day ahead window last Friday against a 90-day moving average of 15. Counts typically increase on Monday mornings so expect several more MRs on the list to start this week initially. The Freight Supply & Demand (FSD) model registers neutral incremental demand. With the prompt count running below the trailing average and the North Sea continuing to lack ballast tonnage; the structural tightness that has characterized this market in recent weeks shows no sign of immediate easing.

The cross-market demand picture is shifting in ways that are directly supportive of NWE MR freight. Philip Jones-Lux noted today that ARA has re-emerged as the cheapest source of mogas supply into Canada, Brazil, and Guatemala, driven by an uptick in USGC component prices, which should sustain cargo demand from the Continent to Atlantic destinations beyond the traditional transatlantic gasoline flow.

Meanwhile, James Noel-Beswick highlighted that May ICE gasoil spreads surged nearly $20/mt this morning on the back of failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend and Trump’s threat to blockade Iranian ports; a development that has pushed USGC diesel arbs to within striking distance of opening for MRs. A bullish freight signal. EC Canada MR arbs are already workable. Further HOGO compression is likely, and if those arbs fully open, incremental transatlantic MR demand will follow.

A structural development in West Africa is also reshaping the demand picture. Nigeria achieved net gasoline export status in March 2026 for the first time on record, with export volumes reaching 44,000 barrels per day alongside historically low import volumes, driven by Dangote’s accelerating output. This represents a fundamental shift in regional CPP flows; rather than West Africa pulling cargoes from ARA into the region, Dangote product is beginning to redirect Atlantic Basin MR demand toward different discharge destinations. The Rotterdam to Offshore Lome diesel arb turns firmly positive from May onwards at +$24.50/mt, widening steeply through summer. The transatlantic arb for gasoline and diesel remains closed across the board.

Fixture activity over the past few days confirms owners are prioritizing the highest-earning non-transatlantic routes. Navig8 Guard fixed from Dunkirk to West Africa at WS 450 for an 18 April laycan carrying gasoil, and Yasa Hawk fixed from the Continent to Brazil at WS 425 for an 18-19 April laycan carrying naphtha. Yasa Swan and Hellas Calafia fixed from Sines to Atlantic America at WS 315 and WS 295 respectively for gasoline, while Eco Marina Del Rey placed on subjects loading Pembroke to the United States at WS 325.

One cargo last week reportedly received at least five offers as owners continue to compete aggressively for repositioning towards the USG market, where earnings remain substantially superior to that of NWE. Despite that owner preference, West Africa and Brazil business is transacting at meaningful premiums to the transatlantic route.

Neil Crosby noted today that European refining margins are under acute pressure from surging physical crude differentials. If European run cuts materialize in earnest, product availability from the Continent tightens further. This would be a bearish signal for MR freight as product supply would tighten negatively impacting product exports and incremental cargoes.

TC2 paper action on Friday reflected the complex outlook: May FFA traded from WS 280 firming to WS 285, while June and July are already in steep backwardation to May with the June/July spread at 15 WS (190/175). Q3 settled at WS 160. The spot rate at 312 WS against a model forecast of 307 WS points to modest near-term softening. Owners can push elevated rates on WAF and South America business, but the market should continue to price on a case by case basis. TC2 rates to remain supported, just watch for signs of degrading EU refinery margins as an early warning signal of fewer bbls to water.