NWE Aframax freight trades in a balanced range as mixed signals offset each other
TD7 Aframax supply in the 14-day ahead window stands at 41 ships against a 90-day moving average of 45. Available Afras have slowly tightened from the 64-count high on 15 April. The supply signal is mildly bullish and when taken alongside a Forties crude RBI of -$0.43/bbl, indicating Forties is marginally competitive. The overall TD7 NWE Aframax picture is broadly neutral with a slight constructive lean.
The steady conversion of LR2 tankers into dirty crude carriers since the beginning of the Iran conflict is weighing on Aframax rates. A reported 68 LR2s have converted to Afras so far this year, which is already materially higher than the whole of 2025. The scale of the shift is creating incremental open tonnage in the Aframax segment.
Fixture activity this week remains relatively slow and reflects a wide rate range. ‘Ran DF’ was placed on subs loading Mongstad for Rostock at 300 WS for a 02 May laycan. Estrella, fixed loading Hound Point for UKC at 230 WS for a 07 May laycan. The 70-point spread between these two deals on similar routes in the same three-day period illustrates the broad range of ideas and likely vessel specific deal details.
The forward curve, relative to most other routes, is relatively flat with spot at WS 244, May at WS 260 and June at WS 209. With Afra supply marginally below average, Forties econs mildly supportive and the freight RBI undervalued; spot can price modestly higher toward May levels. Freight gains are capped though; continue to monitor TI/BR and Forties physical pricing. Fixtures should continue on a case-by-case basis.
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