Iran Update – 20th April – 0400 CET – The Strait of Hormuz is more shut than ever
‘- Over the weekend, many ships attempted to cross the SoH. A handful were successful, most had to U-turn. Within 24 hours of Friday’s ‘completely open’ announcement, there were already tankers that were fired upon by the IRGC, leading to more fears from the shippers on attempting to leave. By Sunday, no vessels were observed crossing the SoH at all.
– The US navy fired on Iranian-flagged container ship Touska and seized the ship today which is the first major escalation since the US-imposed blockade. The ceasefire that ends on Tuesday evening hangs on thread. June ICE Brent opened at 96$/bbl after suffering a major collapse on Friday.
– US has quietly also renewed the Russian OFAC sanctions waiver for cargoes loaded up till Apr 17th, which essentially is 1 month worth of additional unsanctioned cargoes to the market. This waiver is valid till May 16th. Malaysia was quick to announce they will be talking to Russia, expect more Asian nations doing the same with government backing.
– Fundamentally balances are getting worse by the day. 10-11 mbd of crude oil remains shut in and will take longer to restart the longer the SoH is closed. Houthis continue to threaten Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Ukrainian drones continue to attack Russian oil infrastructure, with the latest being an oil export terminal in Tuapse. Risk remains on the upside.
– Meanwhile shortage of refined products will start to be seen in regional balances and prices. Indonesia and Malaysia imports significant volumes of gasoline from Singapore. In Europe, jet fuel is the key one to watch, with sky-high prices forcing flight cancellations. PADD5 in the USA also heavily reliant on jet fuel and mogas imports.
– The world needs the refining kits to run at max up to crude availablity to manage the shortfall from Middle East and Asia. But with unplanned refinery outages (which happens often in the industry, particularly when the units are stretched to max capacity), products remain vulnerable and thus cracks risk also remain on the upside.
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