Iran Update – 17th April – 16:30 CET – Normal flow still very much in doubt
‘- The headlines this afternoon obviously make for a big sell-off with long positions getting unwound; at some point a rebound will be possible particularly once the details get clearer. One for next week.
– Logistical questions still abound. Araghchi has reportedly said flows “on the co-ordinated route”. That would indicate the Toll Booth route that will prove slow, and may also have draft issues for larger vessels.
– What do ship owners do here? A Norwegian association has already made cautious statements. Owners need to get confident and then send vessels in en masse. All of this takes time, and risk of a deal collapse half way to the Strait is also there. As we have said many times, the infrastructure/supply chain issues to work through are still very large and take time to remedy, with one of the first steps being clearing tank tops by getting vessels to ports. Even now oil at $88/b looks under-priced, as do front distillate cracks of $25/b.
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