How the world has avoided an oil catastrophe so far
- Expert: Neil Crosby (Head of Research, Sparta)
- Publication: The Economist
- Market Focus: Crude Oil, Supply Disruption, Strategic Reserves, China Demand
- Geographies: China, Middle East, US, Global
In a recent interview for The Economist, Sparta’s Head of Research, Neil Crosby, flags that China’s strategic stockpile drawdowns are suppressing import demand and artificially masking the severity of the Hormuz supply shock. With an estimated 1.2bn barrels in storage, China has the firepower to keep imports depressed for much of the year — but Crosby notes Beijing will not want to exhaust reserves in a single year. When the Chinese maintenance season ends and throughput recovers, import demand will rise sharply, exposing the true scale of the global supply deficit. Traders should watch China’s refinery utilisation rates and crude import flows closely as the key leading indicator.
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