Fuel prices jump more than oil as Iran War hits supply
“Cracks are up on risk alone at the moment,” said Neil Crosby, head of research at Sparta. The “Ras Tanura shutdown is not only a problem from immediate oil product flow/outages, but also evidence of escalation to oil infrastructure.”
Bloomberg, March 3, 2026 – Fuel markets are reacting more quickly than crude as geopolitical risk intensifies, with product cracks widening sharply on risk premium rather than confirmed outages. The shutdown at Ras Tanura signals escalation toward oil infrastructure, raising concerns beyond temporary disruption and putting more than 4 million barrels per day of refined product exports from the Persian Gulf at risk, particularly tightening diesel and jet markets. As a result, forward curves are steepening into backwardation, reflecting immediate supply fears, with refined products absorbing the shock ahead of crude.
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