Freight Market Report: Atlantic rebalancing – ballasters confirm the move west

VLCC ballasters toward the Cape of Good Hope (COGH) are up 18% week on week, while Suezmax ballasters on the same routing have surged 62%. Owners spent a few days assessing conflict fallout before committing to a westward ballast, but the counts confirm the call has now been made. Both DPP and CPP cargo demand is skewed firmly toward the Atlantic.

Open VLCC tonnage in the USGC 14-day prompt window has risen to 7 vessels against a three-month average of 3. This is the highest count in over six months. Aframax availability is also lengthening, with 17 open ships in the same window versus an average of 10. ECSAM VLCC counts have nudged up by 2 this week, though availability there remains relatively tight.

WAF Suezmax counts have more than doubled from 3 to 8 since the start of last week, surpassing the 90-day trailing average of 7, as ballasters draw close enough to register in the prompt window. WAF VLCC availability remains broadly neutral at 6 open vessels versus an average of 7. Despite the incoming vessel supply, WAF and ECSAM remain the most attractive markets for VLCC and Suezmax owners given still-tight relative tonnage and firm RBI (Relative Basket Index) crude valuations into global destinations.

Aframax counts in NWE have jumped by 11 vessels in the 14-day window, bringing availability back in line with average levels. The move reflects the broader Atlantic rebalancing as elevated ballaster flows begin to feed through into regional prompt supply.

TD25 (Aframax Houston–Rotterdam) spot rates have dropped sharply from WS 393 to WS 250, and TD20 (Suezmax WAF–Rotterdam) from WS 329 to WS 276 since last Thursday. The spot-to-April FFA spread has narrowed considerably, with the forward curve having already signaled this move. SPR release headlines are adding further downward pressure. Heavier EoS releases would reduce DPP freight demand.

The earlier thesis that Atlantic crude freight could shift from tight to oversupplied rapidly if cargo flow fails to absorb ballasting vessels is now clearly materializing. The continued bearishness in non-AG dirty freight rates reflects this dynamic directly. TD3c prices benefit from extreme war risk premium. WAF and ECSAM retain the best near-term market outlook for owners, but the window is narrowing as ballasters build in the forward tonnage lists.

LR tonnage is mirroring the DPP move, with vessels ballasting West via the COGH into the Atlantic where clean product cargo demand is more supportive. The USGC remains the most attractive CPP market despite the incoming vessel supply pressure. Owners should look to charter out promptly to lock in high-earning long-haul voyages. Rates will face additional pressure as ballasters begin appearing in forward tonnage counts. TC14 April paper has already corrected lower.