Europe Chart Pack May 2026
Sparta’s May 2026 Europe Chart Pack examines why Iran-US deal chatter has dragged backwardation across Brent, Gasoil, and RBOB near pre-war levels. Jay Maroo, Head of Product Experts, makes the case that current price weakness is an entry point, not a signal to exit.
Key Takeaways
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- US diesel at a multiyear low. Distillate stocks fell below 101m bbls at end-May, with PADD 3 arbs to NWE and LATAM holding firm on weak TC18 and TC14 rates.
- WTI increasingly competitive into NWE. Weaker TD25 freight and declining fob prices have improved WTI Midland landed values into medium complexity NWE refineries since the last decade of May.
- China has pulled back sharply. Crude waterborne imports fell below 10 mbd in April, estimated at just 6-7 mbd in May/June, freeing WTI and Guyanese VLCC barrels for Far East buyers.
- RBOB spike risk is rising. US gasoline stocks are increasingly stretched heading into peak demand season, with the ARA-NYH arb still open and NYH pull on ARA volumes likely to grow.
- Geopolitical floor remains intact. Hormuz transits are still at extremely low levels and Iran’s PGSA is now an OFAC-sanctioned entity, putting a hard floor under any supply resolution timeline.
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