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Published14 NOV 25 - 09:17 Reading time  minutes

There’s less concern over supply now than at the start of the summer because refinery maintenance is ending globally and OPEC is raising production, bringing more heavy crude from the Middle East, says James Noel-Beswick of Sparta Commodities. “But in the summer demand is generally quite poor, and we’re going into in a period now after December when diesel demand is quite strong.” Nymex diesel is up 3.5% and gasoil on ICE Futures Europe is 3.7% higher.

Wall Street Journal, November 14, 2025

A Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil port boosted crude and diesel prices, adding a supply-risk premium even as agencies still expect a 2025 surplus. Diesel strength reflects tight inventories into winter, with James Noel-Beswick noting better heavy-crude availability but stronger seasonal demand. US oil output hit a record despite fewer rigs, while natural gas eased as cold forecasts were questioned. Overall, geopolitics is driving the bounce, but fundamentals remain heavy.

 

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James Noel-Beswick

Head of Commodities

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